Stocks rallied Monday to start the new month and quarter, as Treasury yields eased from levels not seen in roughly a decade.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the day 765.38 points, or 2.7%, higher at 29,490.89. The S&P 500 rose 2.6% to 3,678.43, after falling Friday to its lowest level since November 2020. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 2.3% to end at 10,815.44.
Those moves came as the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rolled over to trade at around 3.655%, after topping 4% at one point last week.
“It’s pretty simple at this point, 10-year Treasury yield goes up, and equities likely remain under pressure,” Raymond James’ Tavis McCourt said. “It comes down, and equities rally.”
Wall Street is coming off a tough month, with the Dow and S&P 500 notching their biggest monthly losses since March 2020. The Dow on Friday also closed below below 29,000 for the first time since November 2020.
The Dow shed 8.8% in September, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite lost 9.3% and 10.5%, respectively.
For the quarter, the Dow fell 6.66% to notch a three-quarter losing streak for the first time since the third quarter of 2015. Both the S&P and Nasdaq Composite fell 5.28% and 4.11%, respectively, to finish their third consecutive negative quarter for the first time since 2009.
The rally Monday is unsurprising considering how oversold markets have been, according to Sam Stovall, CFRA chief investment strategist.
“Because the S&P was down more than 9% in September... because the ISM was weaker than expected — ditto for construction spending — people are now surmising, hey, maybe the Fed won’t be as aggressive,” he told CNBC. “As a result, we’re seeing yields come down, we’re seeing the dollar weaken. Those factors are contributing to the move we’re seeing today.”
As the new quarter kicks off, all S&P 500 sectors sit at least 13% off their 52-week highs. Nine sectors finished the quarter in negative territory.
Investors were just starting to lose hope for a year-end rally, but Stovall said the market could still get one, noting that year-end rallies are historically stronger in midterm election years.
“We could see a rally because these fourth-quarter midterm election years are the second-best average quarter and also have the second-highest frequency of advance,” he said. “The best one is the next one, meaning the first quarter of the third year. We could be surprised with at least a near-term upward movement.”