CHUCK TODD:
This Sunday: Americans angry, anxious and fired up to vote.
BARBRA STERN:
At the end of the day, if you can't afford to live, you're going to vote for change.
CHUCK TODD:
With control of congress on the line, our new NBC News poll shows we may be in uncharted political territory.
AYESHA WILLIAMS:
What I'm seeing is a division that I've never seen before in this country in my time.
CHUCK TODD:
Untested candidates, unpredictable turnout and the Trump factor all shaking up the midterm environment.
SEN. MITCH McCONNELL:
There’s probably a greater likelihood the House flips than the Senate. Candidate quality has a lot to do with the outcome.
CHUCK TODD:
My guests this morning: the chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, New York Congressman Sean Patrick Maloney, and Republican Congressman of Kentucky Andy Barr. Plus, crisis in the classroom.
OVIDIA MOLINA:
We're seeing so many dedicated teachers leaving the profession.
CHUCK TODD:
The nationwide teacher shortage.
CHRYSTY CLARKSON:
I was running myself ragged.
CHUCK TODD:
Putting children's learning in jeopardy. Is there anything the Biden administration can do to help? I'll speak to the Secretary of Education Miguel Cardona. And President Biden takes a victory lap.
PRES. JOE BIDEN:
We’ve not wavered, we’ve not flinched, and we’ve not given in. Instead, we’re delivering results for the American people.
CHUCK TODD:
Capping off a string of legislative victories signing his massive tax, health care and climate change bill. While Donald Trump gets a victory of his own.
REP. LIZ CHENEY:
I believe that Donald Trump continues to pose a very grave threat and risk to our republic.
CHUCK TODD:
Ousting his most vocal critic from Congress, even as multiple investigations into him and his allies heat up. Joining me for insight and analysis are NBC News National Political Reporter Marc Caputo; Symone Sanders-Townsend, former Chief Spokeswoman for Vice President Kamala Harris; NBC News Capitol Hill correspondent Ali Vitali; and Republican strategist Brendan Buck. Welcome to Sunday. It's Meet the Press.
ANNOUNCER:
From NBC News in Washington, the longest-running show in television history. This is Meet the Press with Chuck Todd.
CHUCK TODD:
And a good Sunday morning to all of you. We are less than three months before the midterms, and our brand new NBC News poll paints a pretty bleak picture. Americans are angry, they’re disappointed and they are worried about the future of this country. Just 21% of adults say we are headed in the right direction, and once again, 3 out of 4 Americans say we are on the wrong track. In fact, this number – never before in our poll has this wrong track number been over 70% for this long. It’s been nearly a year. Fifty-eight percent, by the way, say America's best years are behind us. That's an all-time high in our poll. What's behind this rise in pessimism about our country's future? Well, it starts with this. Americans don't like either party, and they don't like anyone in power. Take a look at this. Both political parties are very unpopular, one slightly more than the other. It's a similar story with both the current and former presidents, with the former president's negatives actually rising a bit faster than we’ve seen since our last poll. The current and former vice presidents, also both deeply unpopular, almost identical. And even the two politicians who have most publicly stood up to the leaders of their own parties — Joe Manchin and Liz Cheney – well, no one likes them either. And with their own parties, they are the most unpopular. So, add it all up and this country now has low confidence in a bunch of institutions, the Justice Department, the Supreme Court, even our public schools. And for the first time ever, when asked what is the most important issue facing this country the top answer was not an economic issue, it was threats to the democracy. Higher than cost of living or jobs or guns or even abortion. So this is the environment in which voters are going to the polls this November. They’re pretty angry. In a normal year, these numbers would forecast electoral doom for the party in power. But boy, these midterms, they’re going to be unlike any we've seen in history, and I’ll warn you, the old rules of politics probably don’t apply.
[START TAPE]
BLAKE MASTERS:
Are you ready to take back this country?
CHUCK TODD:
By traditional metrics, Republicans should be headed toward big gains this November. President Biden’s approval rating remains at a paltry 42%. The GOP has a 2-point lead on which party should control Congress. And three-quarters of Americans think the country is headed in the wrong direction.
JACK LINGELBACH:
We've lost our way.
JOANN PATIRE:
Look at the country, what it’s come down to. It’s horrible – everything. The gas is up, the prices are high for everything.
CHUCK TODD:
And yet, interest in the election is up, all around, to levels we typically don’t see until October.
BEN COZZOLINO:
I’m going to vote because I feel like I can’t not vote in this climate.
CHUCK TODD:
Democrats shrunk the Republican advantage on interest in the election from 8 points to 2 since May. A major motivating factor for the left: abortion.
SEN. MARK KELLY CAMPAIGN AD:
For Blake, taking away health care freedom for Arizona women is just the beginning.
CHUCK TODD:
Voters disapprove of the Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade by a 20-point margin, which likely contributes to the 6-point enthusiasm advantage among women over men for the midterms.
KIRSTEN HERMAN:
You don’t have to agree with abortion to want to honor other people’s rights.
CHUCK TODD:
Republicans hope to keep voters focused on cost of living and the economy.
REP. TEDD BUDD CAMPAIGN AD:
Biden's reckless spending gave us record inflation that's crushing working families.
JOEL LANTZ:
My number one issue right now: prices. The prices of things. It is ridiculous.
CHUCK TODD:
But approval of Biden’s handling of the economy is getting better, and gas prices are going down. And in some key states Republicans emerged from bruising primaries with relatively weak nominees, many who were propped up by former President Trump.
SEN. MITCH McCONNELL:
There’s probably a greater likelihood the House flips than the Senate. Senate races are just different, they're statewide. Candidate quality has a lot to do with the outcome.
CHUCK TODD:
And threats to democracy has replaced cost of living as the top issue on voters’ minds – a potential advantage for the Democrats.
SEN. PATTY MURRAY:
The MAGA mob did everything they could to stop the peaceful transfer of power. Democracy is on the ballot.
CHUCK TODD:
Fifty-seven percent of Americans want investigations into President Trump’s actions while president and after to continue. So despite what history tells us we may be heading into unpredictable territory this November.
MICHAEL MANNELLO:
I think both parties are not really addressing the issues. I think they're both missing the mark.
[END TAPE]
CHUCK TODD:
Well, joining me now is Congressman Sean Patrick Maloney. He’s a Democrat from New York. He's also the man in charge of the campaign committee that is designed to keep the House in Democratic hands this November. Congressman, it's good to see you, sir.
REP. SEAN PATRICK MALONEY:
Good to be with you.
CHUCK TODD:
Let me start with the fact that, look, it’s – our poll shows a pretty even playing field. You've got anger on both sides of the aisle, which can be, usually, a driver in midterms. That seems to have equalized. Is it fair to say now that there's no moral victory for you? You hold the House, that's a win. You lose the House, that's a loss.
REP. SEAN PATRICK MALONEY:
Yeah, that's right. But we have had a summer of strength and we're going to buck history by making history. We, just in the last few weeks, passed historic legislation to finally lower prescription drug costs, capping seniors' out-of-pocket costs, combating climate change, a 40% reduction in just the next eight years in our emissions, veterans’ health care that the Republicans tried to stop. And of course, gun safety legislation. And that's on top of the American Jobs Bill, the CHIPS and Science Act, which will revitalize our manufacturing sector. Look, we know that we need to get things done. That's the hard path that we've chosen. The other side has had a summer of stumbles, obstructing veterans' health care, ripping away 50 years of reproductive freedom, and now trying to defund the FBI and ignore a serious threat to our national security with Trump's latest scandal. We're going to address real problems. We think that's going to bring it home.
CHUCK TODD:
One of the issues though I think that you have to overcome is the amount of open seats, the amount of members of Congress on the Democratic side that chose not to run. I'll put up the list here. It's quite long. As you can see, we have to use really small font in order to get all the names in. These folks left when they thought this was going to be a midterm that looked like it was going to be a disaster for your party. Do you wish these folks would have rethought and had had more confidence that the political landscape might have changed?
REP. SEAN PATRICK MALONEY:
Listen, we've been counted out for a while now. But we are having a comeback. And we have great candidates all over the country: veterans, diverse candidates that look like America, that are a good fit for their district. And we're excited to share those candidates with the American people. Look, you're seeing us come back in the polls. Our frontliners are battle tested and strong. They have a huge advantage, by the way, over their Republican opponents in terms of their campaigns, their cash on hand. They're getting their votes right. They have historic deliverables that they've brought home to their districts: better roads, better bridges, clean drinking water, an end to this pandemic. Look, we've got a story to tell. We're going to go out and tell it.
CHUCK TODD:
Well, the other side has a story that they're telling. And I want to play a couple of examples. And these are in your frontline districts where Republicans are hitting them. Here’s one on the economy. This one is without sound here. But it's hitting what you guys call the Inflation Reduction Act by saying, "Hey, this isn't touching inflation, higher taxes on American people, American families. And this is all being done in a recession.” And there's also some ads here, that’s going to roll in here, that hit the Democrats on crime and "Defund the Police." So let me ask you this.
[BEGIN TAPE]
YESLI VEGA:
My brother had been gunned down and nearly killed by MS-13 gang members. I knew then that I would join law enforcement.
[END TAPE]
CHUCK TODD:
Let me ask you this. A lot of those frontliners wanted more to counter the "Defund the Police" narrative. And Congress ended up not passing anything. Are you concerned that these issues like high cost and crime are still going to trump democracy and abortion in these swing districts?
REP. SEAN PATRICK MALONEY:
Well, let's look at where we are. Gas prices are more than a dollar lower than they were just about 60 days ago and they're still going down. That's good. So the inflation that goes along with that is coming down as well. It's not where we want it to be, but we're making real progress. The other side of course has no plan to lower costs. They only have a ploy to win power for themselves. So we're working the problem, they're working on their own power. And on the other issues you mentioned, my goodness, every Republican voted against lower prescription drug costs and a cap on seniors' out-of-pocket costs of $2,000 a year. That's the kind of real progress that under President Biden's leadership and under Speaker Pelosi's leadership, we're getting done. Now we've got to go tell people what we're doing. But the other side, again, is interested only in their own power and has taken away 50 years of reproductive freedom, wants to whitewash the attack on our democracy, will do nothing – this MAGA crowd will do nothing while kids are getting gunned down in their classrooms. We've got a plan for your future. They've got a plan to win power. And that's the choice.
CHUCK TODD:
Speaking of power, there's a lot of people who thought that you oversaw a very cynical ploy in order to help a Trump-backed opponent in the Peter Meijer district in Michigan. After – look, you see the result, you got the candidate that you wanted apparently there. But you put party over country, did you not? And is that something you're comfortable with?
REP. SEAN PATRICK MALONEY:
Absolutely not did we put party over country. The moral imperative right now, Mr. Todd, is to keep the dangerous MAGA Republicans who voted to overturn our election out of power. There were 139 of them who voted against the results of the election back in January 2021. So this danger didn't start with the primary in Michigan. But let's talk about that. We believe that by running a commercial that called our opponent an extremist who was too conservative for Western Michigan, we teed up the choice in the fall. We've got a strong pro-choice Democrat there named Hillary Scholten. I hope people will support her. We're going to win that seat. The big loser in the Michigan primary was Kevin McCarthy and this MAGA crowd, and they know it.
CHUCK TODD:
All right. But if Mr. Gibbs ends up getting elected, in the words of Peter Meijer, "With a historically unpopular president in Joe Biden and inflation at 40-year highs, less electable doesn't mean unelectable." If this man Mr. Gibbs wins, then have you not helped an election denier get into Congress?
REP. SEAN PATRICK MALONEY:
Again, this danger didn't start with Mr. Gibbs. By every measure, he's the weaker candidate. Don't take my word for it: the Cook Political Report says it's far more likely the Democrats are going to win that seat now. That's doing our job. And let's remember, Peter Meijer was an anti-choice extremist who also was going to vote to have Jim Jordan run the judiciary committee, give you two years of nonsense investigating Hunter Biden. – there's some other silliness – when what we need to do is keep up the progress on climate change, on prescription drug costs, on helping seniors with health care.
CHUCK TODD:
Okay, but Congressman – look, when you're on the Democratic side of the aisle saying, "Hey, Republicans need to stand up to their own party and put country over party," and someone like Peter Meijer does and voted to impeach the president, put his political career on the line. Look, I understand the strategic decision that you made. But you've seen our poll. There's a reason everybody hates both political parties. It's cynical moves like this, is it not?
REP. SEAN PATRICK MALONEY:
Chuck, my job is to win elections for the Democrats and I take that seriously because the moral imperative is keeping the gavel out of the hands of Kevin McCarthy who would have overturned the results of the election. Again, this danger didn't start with Mr. Gibbs. I understand that there are difficult moral questions, philosophical questions about tactics. That's always true in politics. You better believe it. But here's the deal. We are more likely to win that seat. John Gibbs is a weak opponent. He's an extremist with a vicious anti-choice record. He can't string a set of policies together that will make sense for Western Michigan. We're going to win that seat. And we believe that by keeping those dangerous people out of power, we address the larger moral imperative, and that's our job.
CHUCK TODD:
I know you're on the ballot Tuesday. There's also a special election in New York that basically is testing these two competing messages. You guys on the Democratic side, on abortion; on the Republican side, they're running on inflation. Is it fair to call that, the winner, the party that wins that special the one that has the upper hand?
REP. SEAN PATRICK MALONEY:
Oh, well, that should be a Republican victory. I see that they're panic-spending in the last week. They're clearly worried. Look at what happened in Kansas. We won 14 counties that Donald Trump carried in Kansas. In the swing congressional district there, it got 68% support for abortion rights. In Minnesota, in that special election, we closed the gap in half. And in upstate New York, you know, Pat Ryan, our candidate, he's a West Point grad. He's a war hero, started a business. He's been running a county, Ulster County. He's a great candidate. I think you're going to see, I think you're going to see him perform very well. And I know the Republicans are panicking.
CHUCK TODD:
All right. Congressman Sean Patrick Maloney – the Democrat charged with keeping the House in Democratic hands – thanks for coming on and sharing your perspective.
REP. SEAN PATRICK MALONEY:
My pleasure.
CHUCK TODD:
All right. Joining now for -- from the other side of the aisle, it's Republican congressman from Kentucky Andy Barr. Congressman Barr, welcome to Meet the Press.
REP. ANDY BARR:
Chuck, good to be with you.
CHUCK TODD:
And you're no stranger to extraordinarily close elections, to elections that -- midterms that have been as as unusual as this one. You've seen our poll. I want to start with the top issue, the fact that threats to democracy have overtaken cost of living. Look, six months ago, it seemed like cost of -- you guys were going to ride the cost of living issue to the majority. Cost of living is certainly an important issue, but it's not the only one anymore. Are you concerned that, with lower gas prices, that all of a sudden you guys don't have the right message to win this?
REP. ANDY BARR:
Well, Chuck, at the beginning of the program you made the important point that the American people are angry and anxious. And there's a reason why the American people are angry and anxious, and that’s because they are worse off under the policies of congressional Democrats and Joe Biden. Yes, they are concerned about our country and the future of our country because we're in a recession, because we've had two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth despite what the White House wants to do in redefining that term. Real wages are down. Credit card debt is up because people cannot afford this increased cost of living. We are experiencing the highest inflation, Chuck, in 40 years. The average American household is suffering under $5,000 reduced purchasing power. They're paying more for virtually everything. Gas prices have doubled. There's an energy crisis in this country because this president has waged a war on energy in this country. We are no longer energy independent. In fact, we've gone from energy dominant to energy desperate in just a year and a half's time. And we are experiencing a crime wave -- 15% increase in homicides because of the defund police movement. And we have no operational control over the southern border. And in my home state of Kentucky, we are experiencing the worst fentanyl overdose crisis in our country. No, Kentucky is not on the southern border, but we are a border state because our citizens are dying because this administration and, and this leadership in the, in the Democrat-controlled Congress refuses to follow the law and secure our border. And people are dying because of this.
CHUCK TODD:
Let me ask, let me ask --
REP. ANDY BARR:
That's why the American people are --
CHUCK TODD:
Right.
REP. ANDY BARR:
-- anxious and angry in this country and why they want to change.
CHUCK TODD:
Let me ask you this. What is your plan to deal with inflation? What is the Republican plan to deal with inflation other than not supporting Joe Biden policies? And I say that because what is the proactive agenda here?
REP. ANDY BARR:
Well, we have a positive agenda. We have a commitment to America, and we're going to get back to basics. Republicans are going to win landslide elections not just because Joe Biden has done such a poor job and congressional Democrats have failed the American people on the economy, crime and the border, but because we have a positive agenda to secure the border, to get back to basics, to stop the flow of drugs into our communities, to prevent people on the terror watch list from coming across the southern border, and to restore the remain in Mexico policy that this administration just reversed, to finish a border wall infrastructure and technology and resource Border Patrol. You know, the Democrats just passed a bill that would increase the workforce at the IRS by 87,000 people to come after law-abiding American small business owners and harass them. We don't need more IRS agents. We need more Border Patrol agents. And we have a common sense plan to reduce the cost of living, to lower the cost at the pump. We want to restore American energy independence. We're going to end these policies that prevent -- that prevent us from being energy independent. We're going to stop the politicization of, of the financing of energy. And we are going to produce more energy to reduce our dependence on foreign sources --
CHUCK TODD:
Okay.
REP. ANDY BARR:
-- of energy and also speculative, unreliable sources of energy that, that this administration is so obsessed about.
CHUCK TODD:
Let me ask you about the IRS talking point because I just don't get it because a lot of Republicans have talked about dealing with waste, fraud and abuse. The current head of the IRS, who was a Trump appointee, said he didn't have enough people to essentially -- that the biggest problem we have is people don't pay the taxes that they're supposed to pay. If you're upset about extra IRS agents, stop cheating on your taxes, Congressman. And I'm not saying you personally, but --
REP. ANDY BARR:
Well, I don't --
CHUCK TODD:
-- I mean, I'm talking about in general.
REP. ANDY BARR:
Right, Chuck. Look, everybody believes that people should pay their taxes, but the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office looking at this legislation, this reconciliation bill, this inflation expansion act, says that $20 billion of these audits are going to come at the expense of low and middle-income Americans. When Joe Biden and his campaign promised the American people that, “Oh, taxes were not going to go up for people earning less than $400,000,” that was a lie. This bill is going to come at the expense of the American people. Raising taxes on energy producers, job creators and people trying to save for retirement in the middle of a recession, I don't know for the life of me why they think that's a winning strategy in, in a situation where Americans can't afford gas, they can't afford groceries. Heck, moms can't even get baby formula right now. So, the economy is not serving the Democrats well.
CHUCK TODD:
Yeah.
REP. ANDY BARR:
And only in Joe Biden's America, only in Joe Biden's America, is the solution to an inflation-induced -- spending-induced inflation crisis more spending. The way to fix inflation is to lower taxes, to repair our supply chains and to produce more energy to lower prices.
CHUCK TODD:
All right.
REP. ANDY BARR
That's the solution, and that's the Republican solution.
CHUCK TODD:
I want to get you to respond to what happened to Liz Cheney earlier this week. Here's what she said in her concession speech.
[BEGIN TAPE]
REP. LIZ CHENEY:
We have candidates for Congress, including here in Wyoming, who refuse to acknowledge that Joe Biden won the 2020 election and suggest that states decertify their results. Our nation is barreling once again towards crisis, lawlessness and violence. No American should support election deniers for any position of genuine responsibility where their refusal to follow the rule of law will corrupt our future.
[END TAPE]
CHUCK TODD:
Congressman, you voted to certify this election. You're not one of these folks that goes out there talking about this nonsense, but there are a lot of House Republicans that are being supported by the NRCC and the campaign committee that do. Respond to Congresswoman Cheney there. Do you agree with her warnings and concerns?
REP. ANDY BARR:
Well, I, I think it goes to show that – in the election outcomes in a lot of these primaries – it goes to show, these Congressional seats do not belong to politicians in Washington. They -- these seats belong to the American people. And there is a massive, massive disconnect between the priorities of politicians in Washington and the concerns of the American people. I've been -- back in my district, in urban Kentucky, in Mount Sterling, Kentucky; in Harrodsburg, Kentucky; Richmond, Kentucky, over the last several weeks and not once, not once have any of my constituents, Republican or Democrat, talked about the 2020 election, January 6th, the committee in Washington or any of these issues. They’re -- they're talking about not being able to afford --
CHUCK TODD:
Yeah.
REP. ANDY BARR:
-- putting food on the table, putting gas in their trucks and, and not being able to, to see their grandson again because he died of a fentanyl overdose because we don't have control over our southern border. That's what the American people care about. And politicians who obsess about the past are not in touch with the American people. That's why the Democrats --
CHUCK TODD:
But it sounds -- it sounds like you don't believe Republicans.
REP. ANDY BARR:
-- are going to lose this election big time.
CHUCK TODD:
So, you're saying Republicans who are campaigning on Donald Trump's election denialism are making a mistake?
REP. ANDY BARR:
What I'm saying is that Republicans are going to win this election because we're laser focused on what the American people actually care about, and that is the rising price of gas, the rising price of groceries, the fact that we can't find baby formula on the shelves --
CHUCK TODD:
All right.
REP. ANDY BARR:
-- the crime crisis in this country. You know, the the Democrats are advocating a dangerous policy of not only defunding the police, but eliminating cash bail, eliminating qualified immunity for law enforcement –
CHUCK TODD:
All right.
REP. ANDY BARR:
– and, and homicides are up 15% in this country. Americans want security and safety. Democrats are not delivering that.
CHUCK TODD:
All right.
REP. ANDY BARR:
We have a positive agenda --
CHUCK TODD:
All right, Congressman.
REP. ANDY BARR:
-- to put the country --
CHUCK TODD:
All right. I’ve --
REP. ANDY BARR:
-- back on the right track.
CHUCK TODD:
I’ve given you a lot of air time here. Congressman Andy Barr, Republican from Kentucky, I really appreciate you coming on and sharing your perspective about this campaign with us as well. So, thank you.
REP. ANDY BARR:
Thank you, Chuck.
CHUCK TODD:
When we come back, President Biden --
REP. ANDY BARR:
Thank you.
CHUCK TODD:
-- he's having one of his best stretches of his presidency at arguably the best possible time to have it. But can anything overcome Americans' deep dissatisfaction right now? The panel is next.
CHUCK TODD:
Welcome back. The panel is here. NBC News Capitol Hill correspondent Ali Vitali, author of the new book “Electable” about women getting to the White House; NBC News national political reporter Marc Caputo is here; Republican strategist Brendan Buck; and Symone Sanders-Townsend, the former chief spokeswoman for Vice President Kamala Harris. All right. I want to set things up here with a bit of an anger issue that we have here. We asked if you would carry – we asked people in our poll, "Are you so upset about something that you would carry a protest sign for a day?" Over 60% said they would. But the breakdown here – it was nearly 80% of Democrats wanted to carry a protest sign. It was only 48% of Republicans. We've asked this question before and it's usually pretty 50-50. This tells you the anger is on the left more than it is on the right. Now, here are the word clouds from the various protest signs. On the Democratic side, it is one phrase that jumps out over all else, women’s rights. If you look in there, almost – you see a lot of the Dobbs decision influencing those protest signs. Now, on the right here, not anything as dominant. “Impeach Biden” is up top. I'm going to put them together though so that you can see here that women's rights is so dominant, it's the bigger of either of the two. Brendan Buck, normally the out-party is the angrier party. Right now, it is the in-party that is angrier. And that could be a good sign for the left.
BRENDAN BUCK:
It could be. You know, there's an argument that they're upset with Republicans. There's also been a lot of inter-party fighting on the left, too. I think they're a little bit angry with each other. But yes, this is what's different. The Roe ruling completely changed politics. What happened in Kansas, with a traditionally conservative state having massive Democratic turnout that really nobody saw coming has really changed, opened a lot of people's eyes. Now, Republicans are engaged, too, though so let’s not – you know, there's a lot of issues that they're --
CHUCK TODD:
100%.
BRENDAN BUCK:
– fired up about as well. So, I don't think that we should assume that Republicans aren't going to turn out, but it's potentially a different type of turnout model than we're used to in the midterms.
CHUCK TODD:
Symone -- and it isn't one issue. You know, normally it is one or two issues driving it. And it is clearly abortion and democracy are firing up the left. Immigration and just grievance against Biden fires up the right. That's certainly there, too. But this is what's changed. I mean, it does seem like abortion did change everything.
SYMONE SANDERS-TOWNSEND:
I think it did change everything. And I think it's important to note that, you know, I'm from Nebraska. Kansas is right down the road. It – Republicans had to come out and vote to defeat that amendment. And I think the reality here is that rolling back Roe, curbing a woman's ability to make decisions about her own body is not just for women who voted for Joe Biden or women who are Democrats. It's women, period; it affects men, period; people across this country. I don't think it's just a Democratic issue. Republican women? They get abortions, too.
ALI VITALI:
Yes, but then there's also the idea, and you see it in that word cloud, women's rights is in both the blue side and the red side of the sign carrying crowd. But then also the idea of freedom pops up on the red side of that, if you see it on that word cloud. Democrats did a good job in Kansas and Democrats that I've talked to are trying to replicate this issue on abortion across the country. The idea of co-opting that message of freedom and trying to apply it to an electorate who, regardless of party stripes, women don't like the idea of people telling them what they can and cannot do with their health care.
CHUCK TODD:
You know, Marc, one other thing, we did test the president's agenda here and the new bill. He's got some good news in that the bill – the climate, health care, and tax bill – starts out net positive, 42% good idea, compared to the first time we asked about the Trump tax plan. That was underwater. Obamacare was underwater. So, the good sign for him is that. But let me show you this next slide here which House Republicans will jump on, which is people are skeptical that this thing is actually going to help them. So, a plurality thought “not make a difference” with 36%. But 35% thought the bill would make things worse for me, 26% thought that it would make things better for me. So, a double-edged sword.
MARC CAPUTO:
A double-edged sword, sure, but I mean, by and large, people are right. I'm not sure if they've really read the bill, but the fact is, like, we're going to do something about climate change. Well, you're not going to really notice a difference, if you are going to notice a difference, for decades. I mean, these are things that are kind of built in and baked in. But the real good news here is that there is a shine on Joe Biden now. He's finally got a Congress that looks as if it's functional and it's notching wins. And for Biden, who for a period of time was presiding over kind of nominally a totally dysfunctional Congress, the left fighting with the left, Democrats fighting Democrats, great news.
CHUCK TODD:
You know, and Brendan, it does seem to be – you look at all of a sudden what's happening on the Republican side, Trump’s got – ironically, Trump also has gotten – as Biden has gotten better, Trump's gotten stronger within the party. But that's not necessarily helpful to the GOP in the midterms.
BRENDAN BUCK:
Yes, usually when things are good for Donald Trump, they're bad for the party. But here's a situation where he had a raid at his home and all of a sudden, the party is rallying to him. And that's good for him and I think he's cleared out a lot of the competition potentially for a nomination. But it puts Donald Trump back on the stage. And then when you compare Donald Trump to Joe Biden, that only tends to hurt Democrats. Republicans want this election to be about what Andy Barr talked about – cost of living, gas prices, things like that. And then we're talking about Donald Trump, reminding people that this is Donald Trump's party, it hurts. And so, that's why nobody wants him to announce for president. Just kind of stay away for a little while and let us get over the finish line.
CHUCK TODD:
Symone, is it, is it time to actually believe that the Democrats can keep the House? Or is that a bridge too far at this point?
SYMONE SANDERS-TOWNSEND:
I think that it is a possibility. I think folks that are saying it's a foregone conclusion are being way too optimistic. This is going to be a turnout election. And different from Kansas, right? Kansas people were going out to defeat a ballot initiative. In November, it's not a ballot initiative. People are going out to vote for candidates, which is why I think it is very important that Democrats need not talk about the search on the former president's home, need not talk about --
CHUCK TODD:
You wouldn't talk about Trump?
SYMONE SANDERS-TOWNSEND:
No, you don't need to talk about it. Look, if talking about Donald Trump was going to get people elected, Terry McAuliffe would be the governor of Virginia right now. They need to talk about what Democrats have done, what this bill will mean for families. I don't think they're going to see the climate change effects this November, but they are going to see it sooner than ten years. Lowering prescription drugs, jobs, there is something to talk about here. And I think that's what they should go out and do.
CHUCK TODD:
All right. I'm going to pause the conversation here. You guys are coming back, but we're going to have a little bit of an interlude here. Up next, we're going to talk about what's happening as kids go back to school. Are there enough qualified teachers to teach them when they get there? The Education Secretary Miguel Cardona joins me next.
CHUCK TODD:
Welcome back. Across the country, schools don't have the teachers and the staff they need. Many places are scrambling to fill the gaps; Alabama lowering its requirements to receive a teaching certificate. Florida turned their military veterans to lead classrooms, even if they have no qualifications to do that in their degree. Some districts in rural Texas are moving to four-day school weeks. And while states like Tennessee and Michigan are trying to get retired teachers back, Arizona is turning to college students, getting them to teach before they even graduate. And that's just the tip of the iceberg. So it's no wonder that in our new poll, it shows that one in three people have little or no confidence in America's public schools. It is a big problem. Joining me now is the Secretary of Education, Miguel Cardona. Secretary Cardona, it's good to see you.
SEC. MIGUEL CARDONA:
Hey, great to be with you again.
CHUCK TODD:
Look, I've seen a lot of your interviews this week and you've talked about, "Look, we’ve got…there's a short-term crisis that we're dealing with. And we've got a long-term problem we've got to deal with." Look, you've thrown money at this, and I say this not disparagingly; the money is there, trying to deal with the short-term teacher retention bonuses in things like this. The problem is a human capital problem, you know? You guys can't legislate physical teachers for these classrooms. What is some of your answers to the long-term problem?
SEC. MIGUEL CARDONA:
Well, I've seen good examples of what states are doing to address the long-term issue. Well, first of all, let me just say it is back-to-school time. I'm excited that our students, 50 million students, are returning back to their classrooms. This is going to be a great year. And, yes, we are dealing with a shortage issue. But some of the long-term solutions that we must focus on are creating grow-your-own programs. We need to tap the shoulders of our high school students, of our para educators who are dedicated in our schools already, and give them a pathway to higher education. And we've encouraged, we’ve strongly encouraged, the use of the American Rescue Plan dollars to get some of this work done. And we're seeing it in Tennessee. They're working on an apprenticeship program. I visited Las Vegas and the high school there has a partnership with UNLV to get their high school students connected into a teacher preparation program so they can be hired again. And again, I want to stress, Chuck, it's really important that I stress, the American Rescue Plan dollars should be used for this. Now remember, only half of Congress voted for the American Rescue Plan, but 100% of our country can benefit from it. And that's what we're encouraging folks to do.
CHUCK TODD:
I tell you though, it's a bit distressing. You've talked about these innovative programs, but at the end of the day, you know, if we would have had a shortage in people training airline pilots, we wouldn't suddenly say, "Hey. Let's see if we can fast-track people who've ridden on airplanes while they learn how to teach it."
SEC. MIGUEL CARDONA:
Right.
CHUCK TODD:
I mean, what kind of damage are we going to cause to a generation here who are going to be taught by under-qualified teachers?
SEC. MIGUEL CARDONA:
Well, if you've heard my interviews, you've heard me say this teacher shortage issue is a symptom of what I call a teacher respect issue. We need to respect the profession better. College graduates earn 33% more than your average teacher when they leave. And adjusted for inflation, over the last 25 years teachers have made a $29 increase in their salary. That's unacceptable, the fact that we've normalized teachers driving Uber on the weekends to make ends meet or working at a restaurant, waiting tables to make ends meet. We have to lift the profession. We're speaking boldly about that and we want the rest of the country to respond. This didn't start with the pandemic. It's really important that we note that. I've been in education over 20 years, 25 years. We've been talking about fighting for respect in the profession for decades.
CHUCK TODD:
Let me ask you this. Is there any way of taking the student debt crisis and finding a way to, you know… I think there's a lot of people uncomfortable with just canceling student debt without something in return. Is there any way to take student debt and meet the teaching crisis in figuring out a way to incentivize, "Hey. We'll wipe away your debt, if you give us five years in the school"?
SEC. MIGUEL CARDONA:
Yeah. Yeah, that's great. And we do have examples of that across the country. Let me just mention public service loan forgiveness was broken. We fixed it so that our teachers, our nurses can get loan forgiveness right away. We've forgiven over $10 billion in public service loan forgiveness to date. And we're asking folks to go on Studentaid.gov to find out if you're eligible now. But moving forward, yes, we are encouraging the use of the American Rescue Plan dollars to offset some of those costs. That's a great way to incentivize teachers. But we're also saying, "Why don't we take our para educators and give them some college credits paid for by the American Rescue Plan dollars to address the issue? They've proven that they want to be in those schools and those communities. Let's incentivize them going into the profession, using the American Rescue Plan dollars." And although Representative Barr didn't vote for the American Rescue Plan, we know his community can benefit from it, too.
CHUCK TODD:
I've got to ask you before you go, we're ten days away from the most recent moratorium on student debt to expire. Should we expect another temporary extension or is a permanent fix coming?
SEC. MIGUEL CARDONA:
You know, from day one, we've been really focused on making sure we're protecting our students and our borrowers, $32 billion in debt forgiveness from day one. We know August 31st is a date that many people are waiting to hear something from. We've been talking daily about this. And I can tell you that American people will hear within the next week or so from the president and the department --
CHUCK TODD:
Is it fair to say it won't be nothing?
SEC. MIGUEL CARDONA:
Well, I don't have any news to announce today, Chuck. But I will tell you the American people will hear directly from us because we recognize this is an important issue across the country.
CHUCK TODD:
All right. Secretary Cardona, the secretary of education, really appreciate you coming on and sharing your perspective with us. Thank you, sir.
SEC. MIGUEL CARDONA:
Great to be with you. Thank you.
CHUCK TODD:
When we come back, the amount of water in the Southwest; it's shrinking fast, population growing fast. But first, if you don't already know about First Read, it's our daily politics newsletter from Meet the Press and the NBC News political unit. Every morning, we're bringing you the newest polling data, the freshest reporting from the campaign trail, and the sharpest analysis you've come to expect from both Meet the Press and NBC News. So sign up. Scan the QR code that's on your screen right now or go to NBCNews.com/Firstread. We'll be right back.
CHUCK TODD:
Welcome back. Data Download time. This week, the federal government announced more emergency water cuts for states as well as our neighbor to the south along the Colorado River. Arizona and Nevada, as well as parts of Mexico, are going to be required to significantly reduce their water usage from the Colorado River in 2023. Now, it is hard to overstate the importance of the Colorado River Basin in the Southwest. Serves 40 million people. Look at the annual economic activity it generates, $1.4 trillion. But we're in the middle of a 23-year mega drought as well, which is contributing to what has been a low level of water all along the Colorado River Basin. In fact, it is as dry there now as it has been in the last 1,200 years. Let me show you these water levels these days. Right now, we are at some dangerously low levels here, just over a thousand feet. The near high was about 20 years ago, near 1,200 feet there. Let me just put this in perspective. Go back to 1937. That's when we first started filling Lake Mead, and the level is basically the same. If the lake drops further, to 950 feet, the dam no longer is able to produce hydroelectric power. So forget just a water crisis, then you have an energy crisis, too. Look, there's a lot of reasons for the diminishing water supply. Climate change is a big part of it.
But you also can't ignore the impact of simply growing population numbers. Look at the cities that are served by the Colorado River Basin. They are among the cities that a lot of Americans have been moving to over the last 20 years, some of the places in the sun and fun of San Diego, Vegas, Denver, et cetera. And look at these population gains. In 1990, the area was over 16 million. Now, it's over 23 million. By 2025, we are looking at 25 million. So, put it all together. The rate of population growth continues as high as it is. We continue with this mega drought.
We are going to have more actions like this that become more drastic, more extreme. And then we're going to be fighting politically over water. It is not a pretty picture. When we come back, two weeks after the FBI searched Trump's Mar-a-Lago home, a majority of Americans still believe these investigations into the former president should continue. Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
CHUCK TODD:
Welcome back. So Donald Trump's hold on the Republican Party, we have a poll question that we track here. And it basically - do you identify more - this is just among Republicans. We asked, "Do you identify more as a Republican or as a Trump supporter?" And let me show you what had happened. We had been watching basically a slow erosion of support for Trump, Marc Caputo. And it was happening. And we saw it in our polls. We saw it in other polls. And then we happened to be in the field right after Mar-a-Lago and right after the search warrant was executed. And so we saw this gap close. We saw a spike in interest in the election among rural voters. That showed you that there was something there. It goes to Brendan's point before. Whatever it is, when it's somehow bad for Trump legally, it's good for Trump politically.
MARC CAPUTO:
Yeah. And it's also sort of bad for the Republican Party long term. Because we’re, they are looking at…and I think I quoted Brendan the other day in my story where we talked to different Republicans who have talked to Donald Trump, and they said, "He's over the moon." He was celebrating Liz Cheney getting defeated. He's celebrating these sorts of poll numbers. He's celebrating the fact that he's raising more money. And people are thinking, "Oh my god. You've got like four or five criminal investigations into you."
CHUCK TODD:
You might go to jail--
MARC CAPUTO:
Right. Correct.
CHUCK TODD:
--and you're celebrating?
MARC CAPUTO:
Well, as Brendan had said. I'm going to now quote him on this show, right? As he said, "He'll win the Republican primary from a jail cell." And you're seeing it in these numbers. They feel, his base feels, that any sort of law enforcement action or attack on him is an attack on them personally.
BRENDAN BUCK:
And I never bought the slippage. I'm sorry. Like, he was out of sight, out of mind--
BRENDAN BUCK:
I mean, obviously he was there--
(OVERTALK)
BRENDAN BUCK:
--in the polls. I'm not denying that. But he was out of sight, out of mind. Whenever Donald Trump reemerged, this was going to happen. We've seen it. The party is in the image of Donald Trump. Everyone who is not Donald Trump is trying to act like Donald Trump. That's because that's what voters want. So as soon as he came back, they were going to come back to him.
CHUCK TODD:
Interesting little contradiction in our poll when it comes to investigating Trump. So overall, 57% said all these investigations should continue. But when we asked specifically about January 6th, "What's your confidence in that?" a majority have very little or only some confidence. Only 42% call themselves "a great deal" and "a fair amount of confidence." You know, it's almost as if the direct criticism of the lack of complete, I guess, equal bipartisanship, if you will, on the January 6th Committee has taken hold with enough voters. But just because you may not trust January 6th doesn't mean you don't want Trump investigated. It's an interesting gap.
ALI VITALI:
Well, if you want more investigation, certainly you can take your pick of the number of investigations that are actually happening right now. You can look to--
(OVERTALK)
ALI VITALI:
--Georgia. You can look to New York. You can look to the January 6th Committee. You can look down the street from where we are at DOJ. Like, you've got options there if you want to see investigations keep going. I think the thing that's striking to me is that if you want to see investigations that are done in the public eye, you really have no other option other than the January 6th Committee. And I think the work that they do in September is going to be really interesting, especially now that Liz Cheney—not that she was ever, like, operating under the premise that she had to play nice—but certainly she is unchained right now at this point. And the fact that they're talking to Pence, I think casts this in a really fascinating light now, too.
MARC CAPUTO:
I'm sorry. I think there was just also an element of overselling and underdelivering. Certainly when you looked at the social media traffic and what a lot of pundits were saying, you would have thought that this January 6th Committee, like, when they had recently concluded that Trump was going to be clapped in irons and frog marched to Devil's Island. And that didn't happen.
ALI VITALI:
But that was never going--
SYMONE SANDERS-TOWNSEND:
No, I don't think that's--
ALI VITALI:
--to be their charge.
SYMONE SANDERS-TOWNSEND:
Yeah, I don't think that's what they said either. And also, I think that the January 6th Committee investigation is not about Donald Trump implicitly; the threat to our democracy is very real. It is not… Donald Trump could be… let's just say one of these investigations gets him and he goes to jail.The threat to our democracy will still be there. A number of election deniers have run - ran for office and won in primaries. The people at the Capitol that day on January 6th, many of them went home. There were thousands of people there. Only a couple hundred have been arrested and convicted. So this is bigger than Donald Trump. And I do think that it is a dereliction of duty for folks to make what happened on January 6th solely about this one deranged, very dangerous former president.
ALI VITALI:
But isn't the January 6th Committee's work also the fact that they are showing in real time the split in the Republican Party right now? Yeah, the majority is with Trump and rallying around him at this moment. But they have used Republican voices to do the condemning of the former president and his orbit during these hearings. And then of course being in Alaska just recently with Senator Lisa Murkowski saying, "Well, I really hope we're not the party of Trump." You are. But at the same time, there's a few voices that are still there saying, "Hey, there's another way."
CHUCK TODD:
So, Brendan, Liz Cheney said again in her concession. I'm not going to play this SOT now—we've got less time—but I will read it fast. "I've said this in January 6th. I'll do whatever it takes to ensure Donald Trump is never again anywhere near the Oval Office, and I mean it." What's the best way for her to fulfill that promise?
BRENDAN BUCK:
Yeah. I think Liz Cheney did a really good job looking forward after losing her race. But I think people who don't like Donald Trump, were never Trump Republicans, they do appreciate this was a pretty low point for the anti-Trump movement.
CHUCK TODD:
Yeah, it is.
BRENDAN BUCK:
Now, there were ten people who voted for impeachment. Only two of them have moved forward in their primaries. The road ahead is hard. Liz Cheney is not…while I love what she's doing, she is not reflective of the Republican Party. And maybe she'll run. Maybe she'll run as an independent. Maybe she'll try to primary him. But that lane is incredibly narrow right now. So she's got to figure out what's the best way to hurt him and not help Joe Biden. I think if she runs herself as an independent, it could actually help Joe Biden–
CHUCK TODD: Doesn’t it help Trump, if she runs, though, too?
BRENDAN BUCK:
Well, I think if you're a Republican voter who doesn't like Donald Trump and it's a binary choice between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, it might be nice to have a Liz Cheney where you don't have to feel dirty voting for Joe Biden.
CHUCK TODD:
Hey Marc Caputo. What's Ron DeSantis thinking now that Donald Trump got his grievance mojo back?
MARC CAPUTO:
Well, that's a good question. I think in Trump world, which is more obsessed with DeSantis than DeSantis is with Trump, I got an image of a meme that was floating around Facebook from a Republican consultant who's associated with Trump showing DeSantis welcoming the FBI into Mar-a-Lago. So Trump world actually thinks he loves this. DeSantis I think is just waiting for his opportunity, and it's not there now.
CHUCK TODD:
All right. That is all we have for today. Thank you for watching. And, by the way, this Tuesday we are going to be breaking down more primaries. Catch myself and Kristen Welker live on our Meet the Press election special. Florida and New York, two pretty decent-sized states, I've heard. 9:00 p.m., Tuesday, streaming, NBC News Now. Don't miss it. And we'll be back here next week because if it's Sunday, it's Meet the Press.