An important phase in the 2024 presidential race has begun: Early-state polling is starting to show some meaningful divergence from the national numbers.
Fox Business’ new Iowa GOP caucus poll showed a familiar story at the top, with former President Donald Trump way out in front (46%) and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis trailing (16%). But it also showed big movement at the next level, with Sen. Tim Scott (11%) bumping into double-digits.
It’s not a major outlier. A look at all Iowa and New Hampshire polling in the FiveThirtyEight database shows the South Carolina senator on the move in the first two states.
In the five Iowa polls conducted in April and May in the FiveThirtyEight database, Scott averaged 2.6% support. He’s averaged 7.9% in seven Iowa polls since then. In New Hampshire, Scott averaged 1.3% in three April and May polls; he’s up to 5.8% across six surveys in June and July. But his national numbers haven’t moved the same way — just from 1.9% (April-May) to 3.3% (June-July).
What explains this shift? Scott and his supportive super PAC have been spending a lot of money in Iowa and New Hampshire — and not much nationally, focusing on improving his standing in the first places to vote. North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum is also self-funding a lot of ads in the early states and has seen some (less dramatic results): Burgum hasn’t registered higher than 1% in any national polls, per FiveThirtyEight, but he scored 3% in Fox Business’ Iowa poll and between 2%-6% in a handful of New Hampshire polls.
And why does it matter? First, it’s a good reminder that the national polls aren’t going to tell the whole story of a state-based GOP presidential contest, though right now they do sing in harmony on Trump's first-place dominance. There are twists and turns yet to come as more campaigns really start spending heavily, and the state numbers may be a better symbol of campaign health — and a leading indicator for national swings in perception and momentum for candidates.
And it’s the state numbers, not the national ones, that illustrate why Team DeSantis sees Scott as a threat in the fight to be the main Republican alternative to Trump.