The most recent set of campaign finance reports offer an early peek at how House lawmakers' campaigns — and those running against them — are shaping up. Especially in competitive seats, the reports, which cover fundraising for the third quarter of the year, give insight into the horse race developing between Republicans and Democrats pushing to secure the majority in 2024.
Here are five takeaways from these reports:
1. House Republicans raised more on average in swing seats than House Democrats
In House seats rated competitive by the non-partisan Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, Republicans had a slight edge over Democrats, raising an average of $553,000 from July through September, compared to an average of $435,000 by Democrats in the same time frame, an NBC News analysis found.
The Republican average was driven up by hauls of over $1 million by Reps. Michelle Steel, R-Calif., John James, R-Mich. and Ryan Zinke, R-Mont.
No Democrats in competitive seats raised over $1 million in the third quarter.
2. Freshmen raised slightly less than entrenched incumbents
Many of next year's competitive races are in districts currently represented by first-term lawmakers, or freshmen.
On both sides of the aisle, though, these first-year lawmakers raised slightly less than the multi-term incumbents also running in competitive races.
Among Democrats in swing districts, first-term lawmakers raised an average of $419,000 in the third quarter, while those with a longer tenure in the House raised an average of $447,000 in the same time frame.
Among Republicans in competitive seats, freshmen House members raised an average of $448,000 from July through September, slightly less than GOP lawmakers who have served longer, who raised an average of $559,000 in the third quarter.
3. Santos at the bottom of the GOP field
One thing dragging down the overall fundraising averages for Republicans in competitive seats (and first-term lawmakers, for that matter) is Rep. George Santos, R-N.Y., who has been mired in scandal since taking office and faces multiple federal charges for money laundering, wire fraud and more.
Following the third quarter, Santos reported raising negative funds, specifically -$16,500.
This was driven mostly by refunds the campaign issued to donors.
His campaign also reported owing over $750,000 in debts and obligations.
At least five Democrats and four Republicans have jumped in to challenge Santos for his seat, and two of them — Democrats Anna Kaplan and Zak Malamed — reported raising over $300,000 in the third quarter.
4. Democrats trail in cash on hand
Democrats in competitive seats also trail their Republican counterparts in cash on hand, or how much money they had left in their campaign accounts going into October.
On average, Republicans in competitive seats had $1.5 million on hand at the end of September, while Democrats in swing states had almost $950,000, on average, in their campaign accounts at the end of the third quarter.
5. Some Democratic challengers outraise Republican incumbents
Though Republican incumbents in competitive seats fared better than Democratic incumbents in similar seats in fundraising, some of those same Republican incumbents raked in less than their Democratic challengers in some key districts.
For example, in Colorado’s 3rd District and Nebraska’s 2nd District, GOP Reps. Lauren Boebert and Don Bacon are facing the same Democratic challengers they narrowly beat in 2022.
Boebert raised over $853,000, while Democrat Adam Frisch raised $3.4 million. And Bacon raised over $530,000, while Democrat Tony Vargas raised over $870,000.
However, Bacon did have a lead on Vargas in cash on hand. At the end of the quarter, Bacon had $1 million on hand while Vargas had over $750,000.
In New York, where Republicans found a path to the majority in 2022, several House Republican freshmen were outraised or virtually tied in fundraising with Democratic candidates in their district.
In New York’s 17th District, GOP Rep. Mike Lawler raised $840,000 , while former Rep. Mondaire Jones, a Democrat running to take the seat back for Democrats, raised over $1.1 million from July through September.
And in the state’s 19th District, GOP Rep. Mark Molinaro, a first-term lawmaker, raised over $500,000 while Democratic challenger Josh Ryan raised $573,000.
Other districts where Republican incumbents hauled less in the third quarter than Democratic challengers included Iowa's 1st District and California's 41st District.
