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A new AARP poll of the Alaska Senate race finds GOP Sen. Lisa Murkowski and fellow Republican Kelly Tshibaka virtually tied less than two months ahead of Election Day.
And, in the House race, Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola — who won the special election to complete the term of the late Don Young just a month ago — led both of her Republican challengers by six percentage points, 53% to 47%.
Alaska uses a "Top 4" primary system, meaning the top four primary finishers, regardless of party, advance to the general election. This is why Tshibaka and Murkowski, two Republicans, are pitted against each other in the Senate general election.
They also face Democrat Pat Chesbro. The fourth candidate to advance from the primary was Republican Buzz Kelley, but he dropped out of the race earlier this week. He was still an active candidate when this poll was conducted.
This year, Alaska moved to a ranked-choice voting system, one that was replicated by the poll.
Under the state's system, voters are asked to rank four candidates in order of preference. When the first round of counting concludes, the last-place candidate is eliminated from the race and that candidate's second-choice votes are tallied. The process continues until one candidate has the majority of votes.
In the AARP poll, Kelley fell out after the first round, while Murkowski garnered 35% of the first round vote and Tshibaka got 43%. 29% of voters who selected Kelly as their first choice picked Tshibaka as their second choice.
In the second round, Chesbro was eliminated and Murkowski gained 77% of Chesbro's voters' second choice votes. In the final round, Murkowski and Tshibaka were tied 50% to 50%.
In the race for the state's lone House seat, Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola led each round, finishing the final round with 53% of the vote. Peltola was elected last month in a special election to serve the remainder of the late Rep. Don Young's term. This upcoming election will determine who serves a full term beginning in 2023.
Peltola's most significant challenger is former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, a Republican. Palin received 47% of the vote in this poll's final round. She received a majority of Republican Nick Begich's votes after he was eliminated in the second round, but it wasn't enough to overcome Peltola's lead.
The poll also surveyed the favorability ratings of candidates in the state's Senate and House races. Murkowski held the highest favorability rating in the Senate race, with 44% of likely voters over age 18 approving of her job and 54% disapproving.
42% of voters had a favorable view of Tshibaka, while 43% had an unfavorable view of her.
In the House race, surveyed voters overwhelmingly favor Peltola over her opponents. 49% of voters have a favorable view of her, while 39% held a favorable view of Palin and 38% had a favorable view of Begich.
This poll surveyed a statewide representative sample of 500 likely voters with a margin of error of ±4.4%. An oversample of 550 voters 50 and over was also interviewed and the margin of error among just voter over age 50 was ±3.3%. Voters were surveyed via landline, cellphone and SMS-to-web.