Happening this Thursday: Secretary of State Blinken arrives in Israel to meet with regional leaders… Latest death toll stands at more than 1,300 Israelis and 1,200 Palestinians… Rep. Steve Scalise, R-La., wins GOP nomination for speaker, but his path to gavel is far from certain… VP Harris travels to Nevada for latest stop on college tour… And Ron DeSantis and Doug Burgum file their declarations for candidacy for the New Hampshire primary.
But FIRST… Lost in this week’s coverage of the Israel-Hamas war, as well as the GOP speaker race, was a fascinating development in the contest for California’s open Senate seat.
Originally, you had three well-known Democrats running for this seat — Reps. Barbara Lee, Katie Porter and Adam Schiff.
Then last week, Gov. Gavin Newsom tapped EMILY’s List’s Laphonza Butler to fill the seat after Dianne Feinstein’s death, and Butler still hasn’t ruled out joining the race — which means the possibility of four prominent Democrats running.
And this week, former Los Angeles Dodgers baseball star Steve Garvey, a Republican, announced he’s running for the seat, adding a new twist to this contest, NBC’s Liz Kreutz reports.
In California’s primaries, the Top 2 finishers — regardless of party — advance to the general election, and the early assumption was that you’d have two Democrats advancing and duking it out until Nov. 2024.
But if Garvey is able to consolidate the GOP vote in a primary taking place on the same day (March 5) as California’s presidential primary, then it’s possible the Top 2 finishers could be Garvey and one of the Democrats.
(The math: In this multi-candidate field, it might take winning only 20% to 30% of the primary vote to be the two candidates advancing to the general election.)
By the way, a Dem-vs.-GOP general election showdown in California could end up saving Democrats millions of dollars — given all the money that Schiff and Porter have been raising for a possible Dem-vs.-Dem contest in this blue state.
And it would end the discussion of how California Republicans might strategically vote in a Dem-vs.-Dem general.
One other point about Garvey’s candidacy: He’s running as a Republican who supports abortion rights, telling Kreutz he won’t back any legislation restricting abortion access.
Headline of the day
The number of the day is … 217
That’s the number of votes House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., will need on the floorto become the next speaker, NBC’s Scott Wong, Sahil Kapur, Rebecca Kaplan and Ryan Nobles report. Lawmakers did not vote for speaker on Wednesday and it’s not clear when they will vote, though lawmakers are expected to return to the Capitol Thursday.
In a conference meeting on Wednesday, 113 Republican House lawmakers voted for Scalise, while 99 backed Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio., who had been endorsed by Trump. After the conference vote, Jordan conceded to Scalise and even offered to give a nominating speech on the floor in his favor.
Still, many Republicans believe Scalise shares a similar policy vision to Rep. Kevin McCarthy, who was ousted from the position last week, they tell NBC’s Sahil Kapur. Scalise can only afford to lose five Republican votes in a floor vote.
Eyes on 2024: DeSantis goes all-in on Iowa
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ campaign is making its first major ad buy in Iowa, signaling that DeSantis views the Hawkeye State as crucial to his presidential bid, NBC’s Dasha Burns reports.
The campaign is planning to reserve $2 million worth of airtime in Iowa beginning in mid-November and running through the Jan. 15 caucuses, which is a significant chunk of the campaign’s funds, per Burns.
“We are in this for the long haul, and this media buy is another demonstration to early-state voters that we are going to aggressively work to earn their support,” DeSantis campaign manager James Uthmeier told NBC News.
Outside groups have been dominating the airwaves in Iowa and across the country, with Sen. Tim Scott, R-.S.C., and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum being the only two candidates whose campaigns have spent on ads in the Hawkeye State. Scott’s campaign has been the only one on the air since September, according to the ad tracking firm AdImpact.
Read more about DeSantis’ ad spending on NBCNews.com.
In other campaign news…
Making it official: President Joe Biden has taken a significant step in formally running for re-election, submitting paperwork for the first time to appear on the primary ballot in Nevada, per NBC’s Mike Memoli.
Mitt’s message: Sen. Mitt Romney, R-Utah, told a group of his donors this week that it is important to help winnow the GOP presidential primary field, per the Washington Post.
Pritzker’s pitch: Illinois Democratic Gov. J.B. Pritzker, who recently criticized the White House’s handling of migrants, touted Biden’s age as an asset at a fundraiser with Wisconsin Democrats, NBC’s Natasha Korecki writes.
Republican worries: Trump’s recent disparaging comments and escalating rhetoric about undocumented immigrants are raising concerns among immigrant and civil rights groups, per the Washington Post.
New Biden challenger: Cenk Uygur, who founded The Young Turks, a progressive online broadcast, announced Wednesday that he is jumping into the Democratic presidential primaryto take on Biden, per Axios. Uygur, who is a naturalized citizen, said during the broadcast that he believes he can still run, even though the Constitution stipulates that the president must be a natural born citizen, saying “the case law is completely on my side.”
Building a war chest: Rep Colin Allred, D-Texas, will report raising $4.7 million from July through September for his Senate campaign, per a release. His opponent, GOP Sen. Ted Cruz, said earlier this week that his campaign raised $5.4 million in the same period.
Santos saga: A group of House Republicans is introducing a resolution to expel Rep. George Santos, who faces federal charges of wire fraud, money laundering and more, from the House.
Skepticism from the bench: Supreme Court justices on Wednesday seemed skeptical that South Carolina Republicans unlawfully considered race when drawing congressional maps, as civil rights groups allege in a lawsuit.
A test case: Conservative activists view Virginia’s upcoming legislative elections as a dry run ahead of 2024’s elections across the country, the New York Times reports.
Taking the lead: EMILY’s List, an organization that seeks to elect Democratic women who support abortion rights, announced Wednesday that Jessica Mackler will be the interim president, after the group’s former president, Laphonza Butler, was tapped by California Gov. Gavin Newsom to fill a Senate vacancy last week.
ICYMI: What ELSE is happening in the world:
The U.S. has intelligence that some Iranian leaders were “surprised” by Hamas’ attack on Israel over the weekend, NBC’s Dan De Luce and Ken Dilanian report.
The Biden administration plans to submit a supplemental funding request to Congress that includes funding for Israel, Ukraine, Taiwan and U.S. border security, pe NBC’s Abigail Williams, Julie Tsirkin, Courtney Kube and Carol E. Lee.
U.S. officials don’t plan to move up the start date of a new visa-free travel system between the U.S. and Israel, even as some Israelis are desperate to come to the U.S. in the wake of attacks from Hamas.
