Happening this Wednesday: House expected to vote on impeachment inquiry into President Biden… New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu endorses Nikki Haley… Latest release from Iowa poll shows 75% of likely GOP caucusgoers are confident Donald Trump can beat Biden… And Trump stumps in Iowa, while Haley remains in New Hampshire.
But FIRST… Of all the political news over the last 24 hours — Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s visit to DC, House Republicans’ expected impeachment vote, New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu’s endorsement of Nikki Haley — this might have been the most significant when it comes to 2024.
New York might get a new congressional map, which could assist Democrats in their effort to win back the House next November.
“In a 4-3 opinion issued Tuesday afternoon, [a New York] court ordered the state’s redistricting commission to draw a new map by Feb. 28, 2024,” NBC’s Jane Timm writes. “The state’s Democratic-controlled Legislature will ultimately get final say over the map, however, and Republicans have warned the Legislature is likely to gerrymander the map again.”
Why is this so significant? “The decision is a huge win for Democrats because it could ultimately allow the overwhelmingly Democratic legislature in Albany to draw a new gerrymander, putting up to six Republican-held seats in even deeper danger,” saysDavid Wasserman of the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter.
Wasserman adds that a new congressional map in New York — which still has to go through the state’s independent redistricting commission — has the potential to offset the GOP gains that Republicans appear to certain to get after their own re-redistricting in North Carolina.
“[J]ust as Republicans’ takeover of the North Carolina Supreme Court in 2022 cleared the way for Republicans to brutalize Democrats with a new gerrymander in 2023, the New York court’s leftward shift since 2022 led to [Tuesday’s] win for Democrats,” Wasserman writes.
And remember, the Republicans’ current House majority is hanging by a thread, especially after former Rep. George Santos’ expulsion and former Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s upcoming resignation.
So every House seat matters in the 2024 battle for control of Congress.
Headline of the day
The number of the day is … 75%
That’s the share of likely Iowa GOP caucusgoers who say that former President Donald Trump could beat President Joe Biden in a hypothetical general election matchup, an NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll found.
Nearly half of those surveyed — 47% — say that they’re “almost certain” Trump could beat Biden, while an additional 28% are “fairly confident” the former president could beat the current one.
Voters also share confidence that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley can beat Biden in a possible general-election matchup. Seventy percent are “almost certain” or “fairly confident” DeSantis could defeat Biden, and 60% of poll respondents say the same about Haley.
For more on the latest release from the Iowa poll, check out the Meet the Press Blog.
Eyes on 2024: Sununu takes a side
New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu on Tuesday endorsed former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, potentially giving Haley a boost in a state where she hopes a strong performance will further winnow the field.
Sununu told reporters after he endorsed Haley at her town hall that the GOP primary is a two-person race between Haley and Trump.
“There’s going to be no choice but for those other candidates to say, hey, we ran a good race…but we’re all gonna get behind Nikki Haley now,” Sununu said, per NBC’s Nnamdi Egwuonwu, Greg Hyatt and Emma Barnett.
While the two early state governors have not backed former President Donald Trump (Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds has endorsed Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis), Trump has been dominating the rest of the field in terms of endorsements from members of Congress and statewide elected officials.
On Tuesday Missouri GOP Sen. Josh Hawley, who is up for re-election next year, also joined the list of senators endorsing Trump, per Politico. The former president had recently issued a cryptic warning to Hawley and GOP Sen. Ted Cruz, saying they should be careful in their re-election races.
In other campaign news …
Legal questions: The Associated Press reports that some members of DeSantis’ team have been concerned that the campaign and the pro-DeSantis outside groups “are blurring the lines of what’s legally permissible.” The AP details one instance where DeSantis and his wife’s concerns about Never Back Down’s messaging were related to the group’s leaders.
Taking on Trump: DeSantis ramped up his criticism of Trump during a CNN town hall Tuesday night, criticizing Trump’s stances on abortion and his approaches to the Covid pandemic and a wall at the southern border.
GOP candidates on abortion: None of the GOP presidential contenders “were willing to say outright say they disagreed with Texas’ decision to deny Kate Cox an abortion,” write NBC’s Emma Barnett, Nnamdi Egwuonwu and Greg Hyatt, who detailed responses from Haley, DeSantis, Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy.
Speaking of the Texas case: Texas GOP Sen. Ted Cruz, who is up for re-election next year, refused on Tuesday to comment on the case, referring questions to his press office, which did not respond, per NBC’s Kate Santaliz and Frank Thorp V. One of Cruz’s Democratic opponents, Rep. Colin Allred, said in a statement, “After fighting for years to enact our state’s extreme abortion ban, Ted Cruz refuses to take any accountability for the tragic situations he has put Texas women in.”
Seeking advice: Biden’s aides met Tuesday with prominent Black male Democrats, per the New York Times, as they worry that the president’s standing among Black men is slipping ahead of 2024.
Checking in with Phillips: On the campaign trail, Rep. Dean Phillips, D-Minn., has increasingly attacked Biden and moved to the left on a number of issues, CNN reports. Meanwhile, crypto investor and former Biden donor Mike Novogratz is hosting a fundraiser for Phillips this weekend, per CNBC’s Brian Schwartz.
A significant boost: Philanthropist and billionaire MacKenzie Scott donated $6 million to Voto Latino, a group that aims to educate and empower Latino voters, per NBC’s Megan Lebowitz.
ICYMI: What ELSE is happening in the world
President Biden called out the Israeli government, saying that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “has to change” and that his government is losing support from other countries.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with Biden and members of Congress in Washington on Tuesday, highlighting the importance of more aid to Ukraine.
House Republicans are prepared to interview Hunter Biden, the president’s son, behind closed doors on Wednesday, though it’s unclear if he’ll appear.
