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Republicans just need to net a gain of five congressional seats to take control of the House in 2023, a historically slim margin that puts the stakes of Tuesday's elections in sharp focus.
Why is that number so small (smaller than it's been in almost a century)? A few key reasons:
- Republicans outperformed in 2020, netting 12 seats after winning many of the cycle's closest races
- A total of 31 Democratic members are retiring or seeking other office, compared to 20 Republicans doing so.
- Republicans had total control over more states in the redistricting process, which could net them a few seats alone.
What does a good night look like for Democrats? With their majority so slim, a good night is one where they keep control of the House. Anything past that is about mitigating losses to make it easier for the party to take the body back in 2024.
For Republicans, that question is more complicated — largely because most analysts believe they will clear the five seats needed to flip the House.
That's obviously the grand prize. But as Republicans look to run up the score, netting 18 seats would put their majority up to 231 seats, larger than after the GOP wave of 1994.
A net gain of 23 seats would give Republicans more than the Democrats had after they retook the House in 2018, and 35 seats would give Republicans their largest majority in nearly a century.
For more on what's at stake in these midterm elections, and other dynamics driving the midterm elections, check out the NBC News Political Unit’s Election Book.