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The slew of midterm polls released over the last 24 hours all have one thing in common: They show competitive — if not razor-close — contests across the country.
And in an era where polling, especially involving state surveys, has seen its fair share of misses, that’s maybe the only real conclusion we can reach from all of these different polls.
- In Georgia, a Quinnipiac University poll on Wednesday had incumbent Gov. Brian Kemp at 50% among likely voters, and it had Democratic challenger Stacey Abrams at 48%, well within the poll’s margin of error. In the state’s Senate race, incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock, D-Ga., was ahead of GOP challenger Herschel Walker by 6 points, 52%-46% — just outside the margin of error.
- In Wisconsin, a Marquette Law School poll showed Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., at 49% among likely voters, and Democratic challenger Mandela Barnes at 48%. (A month ago, the same poll had Barnes up by 7 points, 52%-45%.) In the gubernatorial contest, the Marquette survey found incumbent Democratic Gov. Tony Evers at 47% and GOP challenger Tim Michels at 44%
- In Pennsylvania, a CBS/YouGov poll of likely voters showed Democrat John Fetterman ahead by 5 points over Republican Mehmet Oz in the contest for Senate, 52%-47% --within that poll’s margin of error. In the gubernatorial contest, Democrat Josh Shapiro was leading Republican Doug Mastriano by double digits, 55%-44% -- outside the margin of error.
Even in Texas, an online University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll showed incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott ahead of Democratic challenger by 5 points among registered voters, 45%-40%, which is within that poll’s margin of error.
And nationally, the generic ballot from a Fox News poll found 44% of voters saying they’d vote for Democrats, versus 41% preferring Republicans. (It was tied in August.)
So with Senate control and governor’s mansions up for grabs in October, we have two words of advice when reading these polls.
Buckle up.