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Three Democratic members of the House — Reps. Katie Porter and Adam Schiff of California and Rep. Ruben Gallego of Arizona — have announced that they plan to run for Senate, leaving their House seats open.
One competitive race
In two of three cases, these House members are leaving behind safe Democratic districts. But in Rep. Katie Porter's case, she'll be leaving California's competitive 47th District without an incumbent representative.
The district represents parts of Orange County, including Irvine, Huntington Beach, Costa Mesa and Newport Beach.
In 2022, Porter won her race by just 3.4 percentage points, and spent over $13 million defending her seat from Republican challenger Scott Baugh.
Baugh has already announced that he'll run for Porter's seat in 2024. He could have an easier race, considering that the non-partisan Cook Political Report already rated the district a Toss Up in 2022 and that Baugh won't be facing a prolific incumbent fundraiser again.
Safer Democratic districts
Reps. Schiff and Gallego are leaving behind safer Democratic seats in 2024 than Porter.
Gallego, who plans to run for the Democratic Senate nomination and challenge newly-independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema in a general election, won his race in 2022 by 54 points.
Gallego's district includes the city of Phoenix, a Democratic stronghold in Maricopa County, Arizona.
Schiff, who announced this week that he'd run for Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein's seat, represents a district in Southern California that includes Pasadena, Burbank and other parts of Los Angeles.
He won re-election in 2022 by over 40 percentage points, putting this district in a safely Democratic column along with Gallego's.
Other vulnerable Democrats who could run
In the wake of Sen. Debbie Stabenow's, D-Mich., retirement announcement, Michigan Democrats worry that two prominent House members — Reps. Haley Stevens and Elissa Slotkin — could be angling to run for Senate.
Slotkin, like Porter, flipped her district in favor of Democrats in 2018. She won her 2022 race by 5.4 percentage points, but not before both parties spent over $40 million in the district, making it the third-most expensive House race that year, per the Associated Press.
Stevens was also part of a wave of Democratic women who flipped Republican-held districts in 2018, though she won her 2022 race by over 20 percentage points.
Slotkin's race was rated a Toss Up in 2022 by the non-partisan Cook Political Report and there's nothing to suggest it would be less competitive in 2024, whether Slotkin runs for re-election in the House or not.