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Cindy Axne at the POET Bioprocessing plant in Menlo, Iowa, on April 12, 2022.
Cindy Axne at the POET Bioprocessing plant in Menlo, Iowa, on April 12, 2022. Greg Hauenstein / Sipa USA via AP file

House results demonstrate polarization’s pull in 2022

More than half of the House districts that flipped so far realigned with their 2020 presidential results.

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Political polarization was a driving factor in the 2022 midterms, and the House results so far demonstrate how entrenched partisanship helped both parties make gains. 

So far Republicans have gained 19 House seats, while Democrats have gained 5, including a handful of new seats due to reapportionment, per House race projections from the NBC News Decision Desk. 

Both parties have flipped a combined 19 seats, with Republicans flipping 15 Democratic-held House seats and Democrats flipping four Republican-held seats.

Twelve of those 19 flips were in so-called crossover districts — House seats that backed a presidential candidate of one party, but elected a House member of the opposite party in 2020.

In other words, a majority of the House flips so far were in districts that realigned with their 2020 presidential results. 

Heading into Election Day, Democrats held 12 districts that President Donald Trump would have won in 2020, according to presidential results by district from Daily Kos Elections. So far they’ve lost eight of them, and two have not yet been called by NBC News’ Decision Desk. 

Just two Democratic lawmakers prevailed in districts Trump would have won in 2020: Pennsylvania's Matt Cartwright and Ohio's Marcy Kaptur.

Republicans held 14 districts Biden would have won in 2020. So far they’ve lost four of them, and six have not been called. 

GOP Reps. Young Kim of California, Don Bacon of Nebraska, and Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania were able re-election in their crossover districts. And New York Republican Nicholas LaLota carried the open 1st District, even though Biden would have won it two years ago.