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The battle for the House is picking up, with Republicans preparing to blanket the airwaves in several key House districts the NBC News Political Unit has identified as consequential to the midterm cycle.
In those eight House districts, Republicans and Democrats have been evenly matched on the airwaves since August, according to data from the ad-tracking firm, AdImpact. But Republicans have an advantage in total ad reservations in all but one of those eight districts, spending $45.4 million combined through Election Day to Democrats’ $35.5 million.
Democratic candidates, though, have reserved more than their GOP opponents in six of those districts. That’s notable because they can buy ads at lower rates, so their campaign money goes farther than outside groups.
Of course these spending numbers are expected to shift as candidates and outside groups make additional ad buys. But these numbers underscore Democratic concerns about the spending from GOP outside groups that’s yet to come.
Here’s a breakdown of how much is booked in each of these key races between now and Election Day:
California’s 22nd District
Future ad reservations: $8.5 million for GOP, $3.9 million for Democrats
Republicans have spent more than twice as much as Democrats in ad reservations in the 22nd District, with the National Republican Congressional Committee as the top spender with $5.6 million. GOP Rep. David Valadao, a top Democratic target, has also booked more airtime than Democratic Assemblyman Rudy Salas, reserving $1.2 million worth of ads to Salas’ $840,000.
Colorado’s 8th District
Future ad reservations: $7 million for GOP, $4.5 million for Democrats
The NRCC is also the top spender in Colorado’s 8th District, a new district due to the state’s population growth. The committee has reserved $3.6 million in ads.
On the candidate front, Democratic State Rep. Yadira Caraveo has a sizable advantage in ad reservations, spending $1.4 million on ad reservations. GOP state Sen. Barbara Kirkmeyer has teamed up with the NRCC for $181,000 in reservations.
Minnesota’s 2nd District
Future ad reservations: $7.5 million for GOP, $7 million for Democrats
The parties are more evenly matched in future ad reservations in the 2nd District, which includes suburbs of Minneapolis and St. Paul. The NRCC is once again the top spender, with $3.7 million reserved. But Democratic Rep. Angie Craig has an advantage in candidate spending, reserving nearly $2.6 million in ads to GOP Marine veteran Tyler Kistner’s $1.4 million.
North Carolina’s 13th District
Future ad reservations: $2.7 million or GOP, $1.5 million for Democrats
In this open seat race, the Congressional Leadership Fund, a GOP super PAC, accounts for the bulk of the party’s spending. Democratic state Sen. Wiley Nickel has reserved $170,000 on the airwaves, while Republican Bo Hines, a former college football player, has reserved $97,000.
Nebraska’s 2nd District
Future ad reservations: $3.2 million for Republicans, $1.1 million for Democrats
Democrats are once again targeting GOP Rep. Don Bacon in this district, which includes Omaha and the surrounding suburbs. Unlike some other House races, Bacon also has a sizable advantage in candidate ad reservations. He’s reserved $584,000 in ads while his Democratic opponent, state Sen. Tony Vargas, has reserved $65,000.
Nevada’s 3rd District
Future ad reservations: $10.8 million for Democrats, $9.6 million for Republicans
The Las Vegas-area district is the one race where Democrata have an advantage in ad reservations, which is largely due to investments from Democratic outside groups. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and House Majority PAC, the main Democratic super PAC, have reserved a combined $8.4 million in airtime.
Democratic Rep. Susie Lee has also spent $2.4 million on ad reservations, while her GOP opponent, attorney April Becker, has reserved $847,000.
Pennsylvania’s 8th District
Future ad reservations: $4.6 million for GOP, $3.5 million for Democrats
The 8th District, which includes President Joe Biden’s hometown of Scranton, has attracted spending from outside groups in both parties, with the NRCC again the top spender in future reservations. Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright has a significant advantage in candidate ad reservations, spending $1 million to Republican Jim Bognet’s $71,000.
Virginia’s 2nd District:
Future ad reservations: $2.2 million for GOP, $1.3 million for Democrats
The Congressional Leadership Fund accounts for almost all of the GOP’s future ad spending in this district, with $2.1 million reserved on the airwaves. Democratic Rep. Elaine Luria has also reserved more on the airwaves than her GOP opponent, Navy veteran Jen Kiggans. Luria has spent $438,000 while Kiggans has spent $77,000 on ad reservations so far.
CORRECTION (Oct. 3, 2022, 9:29 a.m. ET): An earlier version of this article misstated the title of Democratic House candidate Wiley Nickel. He is a North Carolina state senator, not state representative.