Happening this Wednesday: President Biden holds joint news conference with Australian PM Albanese at 12:30 pm ET… Speaker drama galore as House GOP nominates Rep. Mike Johnson, R-La., and previous nominee Rep. Tom Emmer withdraws… Chris Christie campaigns in New Hampshire… And Mitt Romney sounds one last alarm on Donald Trump.
But FIRST… It’s a dead heat between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump in the top battleground states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin a year before the 2024 presidential election.
And it’s equally close in those same three states among the “double-haters” — the voters who hold negative opinions of both Biden and Trump.
These are the findings of new polling from the pro-Biden super PAC, Unite the Country, which tell an important story about these “double-hater” voters: They’re up for grabs in a hypothetical Biden v. Trump matchup.
According to the survey (conducted by the Dem polling firm GQR among 3,000 likely voters, combined, in these three battleground states), Biden and Trump are deadlocked at 50%-50% in a forced two-candidate choice.
But among the 482 voters who have negative feelings about both men — representing 16% of the sample — Trump leads Biden by 3 points, 51%-48%.
These “double-haters” are more likely to be men, hold college degrees and identify as Republicans than the total sample, the polling shows.
Yet they also have higher “very unfavorable” views of Trump (59% of these voters say this) than they do of Biden (49%), and the Republican voters who are “double-haters” are less likely to identify as MAGA Republicans than the total share of GOP voters.
Bottom line: These double-haters — who were a key swing group in 2016 and 2020 — are more likely to be Republican voters, but they also aren’t pro-Trump Republicans, either.
(September’s national NBC News poll found overwhelming majorities of these “double-haters” having concerns about Biden’s ages and Trump’s multiple criminal trials.)
“Given the razor-thin margins in these battleground states, especially Wisconsin, our focus must shift to engage and understand the ‘No-No’ voters. They could be the tipping point,” Unite the Country says in the memo of these poll results.
Headline of the day
The number of the day is ... 3
That’s how many of former President Donald Trump’s former lawyers have now pleaded guilty in a Georgia election interference case.
Attorney Jenna Ellis was the latest to plead guilty on Tuesday, following attorneys Sidney Powell and Kenneth Chesebro, who entered plea deals last week.
All three attorneys are among 19 defendants Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis charged in the case.
Trump has also been charged, and after Powell’s plea deal, he sought to distance himself from her. On social media, he posted, “Ms. Powell was not my attorney, and never was.”
Trump’s legal woes continued in another case, too. ABC News reports that Trump’s final chief of staff in the White House, Mark Meadows, has spoken to federal special counsel Jack Smith three times after he was given immunity to testify under oath. NBC News has not independently confirmed this report.
Eyes on 2024: Trump wields his power in Speaker fight
On Tuesday morning we wrote that the battle over the next House speaker showed that Trump is still the leader of the GOP. And just a few hours later, Minnesota Rep. Tom Emmer’s demise proved just how much sway Trump continues to hold over Republicans in Congress.
Emmer’s bid to be the next speaker lasted just a few hours, per NBC News’ Scott Wong, Rebecca Kaplan, Kyle Stewart and Ali Vitali. After multiple rounds of voting, Republicans picked Emmer as their next nominee.
But then Trump posted on his social media platform Truth Social, slamming Emmer as a “Republican in Name Only,” writing that Emmer “never respected the power of a Trump Endorsement, or the breadth and scope of MAGA”
A source familiar with Emmer’s whip effort told Vitali and Kaplan that Trump’s post made Emmer’s speaker bid impossible. They wrote, “Emmer knew if he held another vote he would lose even more people, which was part of why he decided to drop out instead of letting this drag out, the source said.”
Trump took credit for Emmer’s demise, telling reporters outside of his civil fraud trial in New York, “I absolutely must have had an impact,” per NBC News’ Katherine Koretski and Dasha Burns.
Late Tuesday night, Republicans nominated Louisiana Rep. Mike Johnson as their next pick for speaker, and there could be a floor vote as soon as Wednesday afternoon, Wong and NBC News’ Sahil Kapur report.
In other campaign news …
Stone cold: President Joe Biden’s campaign informed New Hampshire Democratic Party Chairman Ray Buckly that Biden will not appear on the state’s primary ballot as the state did not comply with the Democratic National Committee’s push to move the primary later in the calendar, NBC News’ Monica Alba and Emma Barnett report.
Trump trials: In Trump’s New York fraud trial, his former attorney Michael Cohen testified on Tuesday that Trump inflated his assets based on his feelings, launched a failed bid to buy an NFL team and “arbitrarily” set his net worth numbers.
Gaining ground: No Labels has gained ballot access in 12 states after the third-party organization gained access to the ballot in Mississippi on Tuesday, NBC News’ Katherine Koretski reports.
DeSantis vs Haley — again: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley are clashing once again, this time over welcoming Chinese companies to their states as governors, per Fox News.
Those who wonder ‘what if’: NBC News’ Chuck Todd examines how three people — former President Barack Obama, former Secretary of State Hilary Clinton and Sen. Mitt Romney — may think about the rise of Trump and their roles in the modern political era.
ICYMI: What else is happening in the world
U.S. intelligence agencies believe a Palestinian rocket that broke apart after experiencing engine power caused last week’s blast at a Gaza hospital, per NBC News’ Dan De Luce.
Two dozen American military personnel were injured last week at U.S. bases in Syria and Iran after a series of drone attacks, NBC News’ Courtney Kube and Mosheh Gains report.
The Senate voted 98-0 to confirm Michael Whitaker, President Biden’s nominee to run the Federal Aviation Administration.
The United Auto Workers union expanded it’s strike against the Big Three auto manufacturers — Stellantis, Ford and General Motors — for the second day in a row on Tuesday,
NBC News’ Ali Vitali explores why no GOP women are running for House speaker.
