Happening this Thursday: President Biden holds a bilateral meeting at the White House with Ukraine’s Zelenksyy at 3:25 pm ET… GOP lawmakers warn Biden about Ukraine funding, NBC’s Liz Brown-Kaiser and Rebecca Kaplan report… Senate confirms first military nominee in months after Sen. Tommy Tuberville’s, R-Ala., blockade… CNN/University of New Hampshire poll findsDonald Trump way ahead in New Hampshire… And Vivek Ramaswamy shares his family’s citizenship story — with one more important reveal.
But FIRST… Not only does the new CNN/University of New Hampshire poll show Ron DeSantis losing ground to Donald Trump in the Granite State — with Trump at 39% among likely GOP primary voters, Vivek Ramaswamy at 13%, Nikki Haley at 12%, Chris Christie at 11% and DeSantis at 10%.
The survey finds that DeSantis’ decline in New Hampshire is coming largely from moderate GOP voters.
In July’s University of New Hampshire poll, DeSantis was the choice of 26% of self-described moderates. Now he’s at 6% among this demographic, according to the new survey.
It’s not just in New Hampshire. In February’s national Quinnipiac poll, when DeSantis trailed Trump by only 6 points overall, the Florida governor was ahead of Trump by 10 points among moderate/liberal Republicans, 36% to 26%.
Yet in this month’s national Quinnipiac poll, Trump was ahead of DeSantis among these moderate/liberal voters by 36 points, 46% to 10%.
And our own national NBC News poll — which showed DeSantis declining from 31% of all GOP primary voters in April to 22% in June — found erosion in moderate/liberal Republicans (from 26% to 18%).
Make no mistake: DeSantis’ national drop has been across the board, with declines also coming from “very conservative” and “somewhat conservative” Republicans.
But the specific erosion from moderate GOPers raises an important question: By DeSantis trying to go to Trump’s right on so many issues — abortion, Covid handling, vaccines, race in public education — did the Florida governor alienate a segment of the GOP electorate that appeared to be on board with him at the beginning and who have been desperately seeking a Trump alternative?
And now are these GOP voters now gravitating towards the likes of Nikki Haley (who’s at 24% among moderates in New Hampshire, per the new CNN/UNH poll) and Chris Christie (who’s at 22%)?
Headline of the day
The number of the day is … 7
That’s how many total campaign events, starting Wednesday, that former President Donald Trump will have over the next week-and-a-half, as the GOP presidential frontrunner ramps up his campaign travel, NBC News’ Jake Traylor reports.
Trump’s upcoming campaign events include remarks in Iowa and South Carolina, as well as a primetime speech to United Auto Workers members next week in Michigan around the time of the second GOP debate.
The ramp-up is notable for Trump, who held just four campaign events in the past month. But he continues to dominate in the polling even as he’s been far less active on the campaign trail than many of his rivals.
Read more on the Meet the Press Blog.
Other numbers to know:
83: The number of senators who voted to confirm Air Force Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr. to be the head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the first military nominee the Senate has confirmed in months because of Alabama GOP Sen. Tommy Tuberville’s hold over his disagreements with the Defense Department’s abortion travel policies.
11: The number of consecutive interest rate hikes made by the Federal Reserve until Wednesday’s decision to keep rates where they are.
2,000: The number of General Motors employees laid off after a decision to idle a manufacturing plant in Kansas as the United Auto Workers strike continues.
7: The number of times prosecutors say Elijah McClain, a Black man who died in Colorado police custody after being given a sedative, told officers “I can’t breathe.” Two people (one current officer and one former officer) are on trial in McClain’s death.
More than 200,000: The number of Venezuelan migrants who crossed the border without legal documentation since July who the Biden administration is granting Temporary Protected Status to, NBC News’ Julia Ainsley reports.
More than 15,000: The number of people who have registered for the No Labels party in Arizona, according to the Associated Press, enough to potentially change the political gravity in a state that’s had a handful of very close elections.
Eyes on 2024: Knowing Vivek Ramaswamy
Businessman Vivek Ramaswamy captured some attention — and the ire of his GOP rivals — during the first presidential debate. And some of his controversial positions and comments have continued to grab headlines, including his immigration policies.
In a new interview with NBC News, Ramaswamy details his family’s own immigrant story as he pushes hardline policies on the campaign trail, per NBC’s Katherine Koretski, Dasha Burns, Abigail Brooks and Emma Barnett
Ramaswamy has pushed for 18-24 year olds to pass a civics test, similar to a citizenship test, before being allowed to vote. Despite previously saying his parents took the citizenship test, he clarified to NBC News that his father is not a citizen and did not take the test “for familial reasons.”
Ramaswamy also personally benefited from birthright citizenship, becoming a citizen when he was born in the U.S. to non-citizen parents who immigrated legally. On the campaign trail, he has pushed for eliminating birthright citizenship for children born of undocumented immigrants.
The interview also shed some light on Ramaswamy’s style on the campaign trail, and he admitted his responses to questions during forums are often “off the cuff.”
“On the things that matter, I am sharing my honest and true convictions,” Ramaswamy said when asked if he says what he means. “Not everything I say is a policy priority.”
Read more about the Ramaswamy interview on NBCNews.com.
In other campaign news …
Abortion politics: Trump is getting heat from all sides for his abortion position, per NBC’s Sahil Kapur, as Democrats accuse him of wanting to go further to restrict abortion than he’s now saying he would, and some of his GOP rivals criticize him for not being conservative enough on the issue.
Trump on the trail: As he campaigned in Iowa Wednesday, Trump laid out some planks of his immigration platform, which “foreshadows a greater use of executive branch powers and law enforcement resources, which the president could have a greater hand in directing,” write NBC’s Vaughn Hillyard, Jake Traylor and Dan Gallo.
Crime claim: DeSantis’ claim that Florida’s crime rate is at a 50-year low is based on incomplete data, and three former officials with Florida’s Department of Law Enforcement say the department’s leadership was warned that the numbers were “bad” but “they did not care,” NBC’s Matt Dixon reports.
DeSantis on the record: DeSantis sat down for a wide-ranging interview with ABC News, where he discussed Trump, abortion, his immigration and energy policies, his standoff with Disney, new Covid vaccines, and GOP megadonor Ken Griffin staying out of the primary despite backing DeSantis’ re-election.
Veepstakes: South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott discussed his potential vice presidential picks during a campaign stop in New Hampshire, including former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu and former South Carolina Rep. Trey Gowdy, per NBC’s Nnamdi Egwuonwu and Emma Barnett.
The Haley bump: Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley has seen her support in Fox Business’ Iowa poll jump from 5% in July to 11% in a new poll released Wednesday.
All that glitters is gold: NBC News’ Jonathan Dienst and Courtney Copenhagen report that “Federal prosecutors are looking into whether an admitted felon helped arrange to give gold bars worth hundreds of thousands of dollars to New Jersey Sen. Robert Menendez or his wife in exchange for help.”
This jawn’s running, youse guys: Pennsylvania Republican David McCormick is expected to announce his Senate bid Thursday evening, per the Associated Press, setting up a possible high-profile clash with Democratic Sen. Bob Casey.
If you’re gonna play in Texas: Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton told conservative commentator Tucker Carlson that “everything’s on the table” when asked whether he’d mount a primary bid against GOP Sen. John Cornyn in 2026.
Beshear camp criticizes Cameron on abortion: A new ad from Kentucky Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear features a sexual abuse survivor criticizing his GOP opponent, Attorney General Daniel Cameron, for his past support for legislation that didn’t allow abortion access to rape and incest victims.
ICYMI: What ELSE is happening in the world:
Biden administration aides have asked Rahm Emanuel, the U.S. Ambassador to Japan, to stop taunting Chinese officials on social media, NBC News’ Carol E. Lee, Courtney Kube and Peter Nicholas report.
Cassidy Hutchinson, a former top aide to Trump chief of staff Mark Meadows, alleged that Rudy Giuliani, a former Trump attorney, groped her on Jan. 6.
As Gen. Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, wraps up his tenure, he spoke to The Atlantic about his tenure under President Trump and his recollections surrounding the Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the Capitol.
