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Chicago, Wisconsin and Denver elections: What the Political Unit is watching

The partisan balance of Wisconsin's Supreme Court, plus the top jobs in Chicago and Denver are all on the ballot Tuesday.

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Voters head to the polls Tuesday in the key elections for Wisconsin's state Supreme Court, as well as mayoral elections in Chicago and Denver.

The race in the perennial battleground of Wisconsin holds the key to partisan balance of the state Supreme Court; Chicago’s mayoral race is a battle of competing ideologies in a deeply Democratic city; and Denver's race features a sprawling field where uncertainly reigns supreme.

You can follow the results of both the races in Wisconsin and Chicago when polls close Tuesday (at 9 p.m. and 8 p.m. ET respectively) with the latest results from NBC News' Decision Desk.

Here's what the NBC News Political Unit is watching in each race:

Wisconsin Supreme Court

Two candidates are running to replace retiring conservative Justice Patience D. Roggensack — Milwaukee County Circuit Court Judge Janet Protasiewicz and former Supreme Court Justice Daniel Kelly. The winner will serve a 10-year term.

The race is technically nonpartisan, but both candidates have clear ideological leanings as the balance of power in the court is up for grabs. A Protasiewicz would grant liberals a 4-3 majority for the first time in 15 years, while a victory by Kelly would cement a 4-3 majority for conservatives.

Protasiewicz is running as a liberal who is not only backed by EMILY’s List and Planned Parenthood, but also received over $8 million in donations between Feb. 7 and March 20 from the state Democratic Party.

Kelly, who previously sat on the court but lost his 2020 election, is running as a conservative. He’s been backed by groups like the Republican Party of Wisconsin, Americans for Prosperity and Wisconsin Right to Life, an anti-abortion rights group.

The court’s makeup could impact a slew of important issues, including abortion and redistricting — a case challenging Wisconsin's 1849 law banning virtually all abortions in the state is expected to reach the court, and it's possible that a new challenge to the state's legislative maps could end up before the justices, too.

Since the Feb. 21 nonpartisan primary (which eliminated two other candidates from the race), Protasiewicz has far outraised Kelly and has outspent him and his allies on TV ads.

TV ads from Kelly and his allies have focused on crime and the legal system, while Protasiewicz’s ads have focused on her pro-abortion rights stance.

Chicago mayor

Tuesday's mayoral runoff features Cook County Commissioner Brandon Johnson and Paul Vallas, the former Chicago public schools chief who previously made unsuccessful runs for mayor, governor and lieutenant governor. The race is also technically nonpartisan, but both men have been stressing their Democratic credentials.

Vallas was the top-vote getter in the election’s first round in February, winning 33% of the vote, followed by Johnson at 22%. Mayor Lori Lightfoot won 17% of the vote, making her the first Chicago mayor in 40 years to lose re-election

The runoff between Vallas, a 69-year-old white moderate, and Johnson, a 46-year-old Black progressive, has been a standoff over ideology and their approach to governance, particularly when it comes to the city’s recent spike in crime. Johnson has had to answer for past comments calling to “defund the police,” while Vallas has faced charges that he is too conservative. Racial divides have also defined the contest, per NBC News’ Natasha Korecki. Recent polling has shown the race in a dead heat.

Both Vallas and Johnson have racked up endorsements as they’ve battled for support. Johnson has support from high-profile progressives, including Sens. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., as well as Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle and Democratic Rep. Jesus “Chuy” García, who won 14% of the vote in February when he was running for mayor. 

Vallas, meanwhile, recently won Illinois Democratic Sen. Dick Durbin’s endorsement. He also has the backing of former Gov. Pat Quinn, who picked Vallas as his running mate for his unsuccessful 2014 run, and former Education Secretary Arne Duncan. He also has endorsements from some prominent Black leaders, including Jesse White, the state’s longest-serving secretary of state and the state’s first Black secretary of state, and former Democratic Rep. Bobby Rush.

The pair have faced off in multiple televised debates, clashing in their most recent debate over their ties to unions. Vallas has been endorsed by the Chicago Fraternal Order of Police while he influential Chicago Teachers Union has backed Johnson. 

Denver mayor

After 12 years in office, Denver Mayor Michael Hancock is term-limited, leaving Denver voters set to elect a new mayor.

There are 17 candidates on the non-partisan ballot, with no clear frontrunner. If no candidate eclipses 50%, which is expected given the size of the field, the top two candidates will advance to a runoff on June 6.

The top candidates include:

  • Michael Johnston (a former state senator and 2018 gubernatorial candidate who has the Denver Post’s endorsement and the bulk of the big money donors)
  • Kelly Brough (the former chief of staff to then-Mayor John Hickenlooper, who recently ran the Denver Metro Chamber of Commerce)
  • Lisa Calderón (the third place finisher in the 2019 mayoral race who has the backing of local progressive groups including the Working Families Party and Democratic Socialists of America)

Other candidates include:

  • State Sen. Chris Hansen
  • State Rep. Leslie Herod
  • Businessman Andy Rougeot (the lone registered Republican in the field)

Like in other cities, the big issues in the mayoral race are crime and homelessness. Johnston pledged to end homelessness during his first term, proposing the construction of tiny home communities. Calderón is against enforcing the city’s camping ban and has called for a more community-driven approach. The campaign’s crowded debate stages have largely focused on these topics.

Colorado elections are conducted entirely by mail, but ballots can be returned in person at voting centers that close at 9 p.m. ET.