By
Saturday marked the opening of the Republican National Committee's poll qualifying window for its first presidential primary debate, giving candidates the next month and a half to hit the thresholds required to make the August debate stage in Milwaukee.
Candidates don't just have to pledge to support the eventual nominee (which might be a sticking point for some candidates who are at risk of falling short on other criteria), but they have to hit both polling and fundraising criteria too:
- Either hit 1% in three qualifying national polls or two national polls and two qualifying early-state polls (from different states).
- Raise money from at least 40,000 unique donors, with at least 200 donors in at least 20 states or territories.
Candidates don't have to disclose fundraising information in real time, so it won't be clear who is on the path toward the fundraising criteria until later this month. And it's not clear which polls the RNC will use to determine the debate field, since qualifying polls must have a sample size of at least 800 registered likely Republican voters, a much larger sample than most prominent pollsters use.
But qualifying doesn't mean everything — even though former President Donald Trump is a virtual lock to qualify for the first debate, he is not expected to participate and could instead hold a competing event.
Ahead of the Aug. 23 debate, here's a look at which candidates appear to be on a solid path toward making the debate stage and who may be sweating it out:
A virtual lock to qualify
Trump, Florida Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis, South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy are almost guaranteed to qualify because their strengths match up perfectly with the criteria: All three are fundraising juggernauts and consistently register in polls (albeit with very different shares of support).
It might seem obvious that Trump and DeSantis are seen as locks.
But Scott has built out one of the most robust fundraising networks of any GOP senator, and told Fox News last month he already eclipsed the unique donor threshold. Haley press secretary Ken Farnaso confirmed to NBC News that she eclipsed that threshold too, and a top Ramaswamy campaign official tweeted his candidate had also done so.
Even though Haley, Scott and Ramaswamy are polling well behind Trump and DeSantis, they still regularly register in primary polling and are likely to continue to do so.
Likely, but not a guarantee
Former Vice President Mike Pence is expected to make the stage, but he has a trickier path than some of his other rivals.
Pence should have no problems hitting the polling mark — he's a fixture on virtually every poll and has strong name identification among GOP voters.
But polls have shown he has significantly higher unfavorable marks among those voters too, and he jumped into the campaign late. Those factors could complicate his push to hit 40,000 unique donors, but the odds remain in his favor.
A coin flip
Here's where things get interesting.
Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie regularly sports the highest unfavorable ratings in the entire GOP field, and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum isn't well known on the national stage. Those realities, plus the fact both candidates jumped into the race last month, will complicate their pathways to the debate stage.
But both candidates have some unique strengths that could help them on their quest to the GOP debate stage.
Christie is among the most vocal Trump critics, and certainly represents a constituency in the GOP that doesn't approve of the direction Trump has led the party. That's helped him consistently register in polls, and could help him on his quest to 40,000 donors (as could a push from his aligned super PAC, which has been soliciting donations to help him make the debate stage).
One wild card: Christie has repeatedly said he would sign the party's pledge but not take it seriously. The RNC didn't directly reply to a question from NBC News about whether it would take such comments into account from a candidate who signed the pledge, but said candidates complaining about the pledge should "reconsider their priorities."
Burgum hasn't consistently hit the 1% mark like Christie has, but he has a trump card of his own: Significant personal wealth.
The governor, who has said he would spend his own money on his campaign, has been among the top ad spenders since he jumped into the race. So Burgum's campaign is likely hoping that the big spend could help raise money and his poll numbers.
In danger of missing out
Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, Miami Mayor Francis Suarez, conservative commentator Larry Elder and former Texas Republican Rep. Will Hurd risk missing out on the first contest.
All have some unique characteristics that could be helpful: Hutchinson is one of the few fighting for the anti-Trump lane, and has been in the race for months; Elder gained notoriety as the top Republican in the 2021 California gubernatorial recall that could help him despite not having much of a visible campaign; Hurd, the latest Republican to enter the field, has gained some media attention due to his critiques of Trump; and Suarez has an aligned super PAC that's spending a moderate amount to boost him.
But none have spent much, if at all, on advertising so far, according to the ad tracking firm AdImpact. And they haven't regularly registered in recent polling, further complicating their attempts to break out as Republicans relatively unknown on the national stage.
And while Hutchinson has vocally criticized the pledge (but said he'll sign it), Hurd has explicitly said he wouldn't. If he doesn't, he'll miss the debate regardless of whether he hits the other thresholds.
Two other, little-known Republican candidates aren't expected to make the debate either: Michigan businessman Perry Johnson and Texas businessman and pastor Ryan Binkley. Johnson has spent more than $2 million on ads for his bid, and Binkley has spent more than $800,000.
CORRECTION (July 19, 2023, 10:50 a.m. ET): A previous version of this article misstated one way a candidate can qualify for the Aug. 23 debate. A candidate must register 1% in two national polls and 1% in two polls -- not one -- from two of the four states holding early nominating contests. (The other way to qualify is to hit at least 1% in three qualifying national polls conducted after July 1.)