If it’s TUESDAY… President Biden attends NATO summit in Lithuania, as Turkey agrees to back Sweden’s NATO bid… Two new grand juries get seated in Fulton County, Ga., which could be used in election-interference probe, NBC’s Charlie Gile reports… Iowa Republicans begin special legislative session to push for another six-week abortion ban… And Vivek Ramaswamy and Asa Hutchinson both stump in the Hawkeye State.
But FIRST... On Monday, we wrote that the most important number worth watching in the Republican presidential race over the next six months is the 49% of GOP primary voters saying Donald Trump should remain the party’s leader (per last month’s NBC News poll).
Today, we take a look at what could be the most important number for President Joe Biden and the Democrats.
The low 30s.
That’s where many national polls have Biden’s approval rating on the economy — despite an unemployment rate of 3.6%, another 200,000-plus jobs created in June and an inflation rate that’s declining.
This disconnect — an economy that appears more than solid by the traditional measurements, but a president getting little credit for it — might be Biden’s central challenge over the next year.
And it’s why the Biden White House has embarked on its “Bidenomics” campaign 1) to sell an improving economy to the American public and 2) to contrast Biden’s economic vision with Republicans.
Increased political polarization, the pandemic and lower consumer buying power (with higher interest rates and still higher prices) all help explain why the public might not be feeling an economy with such a low unemployment rate.
But there’s maybe an even bigger economic question worth asking: What role will the economy play in 2024, especially if it’s a Biden vs. Trump rematch?
Will the race come down to the unemployment rate, inflation and Biden’s approval rate on the economy?
Or will it be about abortion, cultural issues, Jan. 6, already-established views on Biden and Trump and the size of the third-party vote?
After all, when culture is more front and center in our politics — as it clearly appears to be in the GOP race right now — the economy is usually in a better place.
Headline of the day
Data Download: The number of the day is … $7.3 million
That’s how much money former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley purportedly raised in the second fundraising quarter between her campaign, her leadership PAC and another affiliated PAC, according to a Haley campaign spokesperson, per NBC News’ Ali Vitali. The campaign said it has hit the donor threshold to qualify for the first presidential primary debate.
The news is another reminder to take these early fundraising numbers with a grain of salt. It’s not clear, for example, how much money actually went to Haley’s campaign itself. And it’s worth remembering that Haley’s campaign double-counted donations to her campaign and her joint fundraising committee when it announced its first-quarter haul, inflating the amount she actually raised.
So stay tuned later this week, with campaign fundraising reports due to the Federal Election Commission on Saturday, for a clearer picture of how much the campaigns are raising and spending.
Other numbers to know
164: How many years it’s been since the U.S. Marine Corps was without a Senate-confirmed leader. That’s now the case thanks to Alabama GOP Sen. Tommy Tuberville’s blockade of military nominees over the Pentagon’s abortion travel policy.
$500,000: How much money former Trump adviser Steve Bannon was ordered to pay his attorneys, who alleged that Bannon did not pay them.
7: The number of countries with an openly gay head of state, now that Latvia swore in its new president, Edgar Rinkēvičs.
At least 20: How many states have laws banning or restricting gender-affirming care for transgender minors, causing families with transgender children and teenagers to grapple with how to navigate the new laws.
4: The number of consecutive days last week that the global temperature either tied an existing record or set a new one, and a heatwave continues to hit the Southwest U.S. this week.
Eyes on 2024: Fundraising gimmicks galore
Two GOP presidential hopefuls are deploying an unusual fundraising tactic: giving their donors cold, hard cash.
Businessman Vivek Ramaswamy launched an unusual fundraising program on Monday, per NBC News’ Katherine Koretski. The campaign, which has already surpassed 40,000 donors, plans to enlist donors to help raise money from other contributors, and says it will give those donors 10% what they raise.
And North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum began a fundraising push encouraging 50,000 donors to give just $1 to his campaign — and in return they would receive a $20 Visa or Mastercard gift card.
And 50,000 donors isn’t an arbitrary number; it’s part of a bid to reach the minimum donor threshold of 40,000 contributors necessary to qualify for the first GOP presidential debate, per the requirements from the Republican National Committee.
Campaign finance experts told the New York Times that the move raises questions about whether Burgum is violating a ban on straw donations, since he is effectively making a contribution to his own campaign in the name of these small-dollar donors.
In other campaign news …
Youths! Young voters may prove to be a decisive voting bloc in 2024, and NBC News’ Sahil Kapur delves into how the Biden campaign is working to energize them. One pollster who specializes in young voters told Kapur that there are “flashing red” warning signs that young voters might not turnout at record levels again.
Caught in the crossfire: Former President Donald Trump attacked Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds on Monday for declining to endorse a candidate in the GOP presidential primary, while other contenders for the Republican nomination, including former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, Nikki Haley and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis defended her.
On the air: A conservative, anti-Trump group called Win it Back PAC, linked to the Club for Growth, has booked almost $3.5 million worth of ad time in July, according to AdImpact, an ad-tracking firm. NBC News’ Sahil Kapur points out that the 60-second ad takes 45 seconds to “gently” question whether Trump is electable.
Trump trial: Trump’s attorneys argued in a new court filing that his trial relating to his handling of classified documents should be delayed, potentially after the 2024 election.
Pence’s take: Former Vice President Mike Pence, who has been outspoken in his support for Ukraine, said Monday that he support’s Biden’s controversial decision to send cluster munitions to the country.
Facing off: Five GOP candidates — DeSantis, Pence, Ramaswamy, Haley and Sen. Tim Scott — will participate in a forum on July 14 hosted by former Fox News host Tucker Carlson (Trump, the frontrunner, is not expected to attend). The event will take place at the Family Leadership Summit in Des Moines, Iowa, a gathering of Christian conservatives, per The Messenger.
An up-Hill battle: Actor Hill Harper announced Monday that he is running for Senate in Michigan, taking on Rep. Elissa Slotkin for the Democratic nomination.
All shook up: New fundraising reports show that Mississippi GOP Gov. Tate Reeves has a campaign war chest that is five times larger than his likely Democratic challenger, state Public Service Commissioner Brandon Presley, per the Associated Press. Presley, who is related to the late rock-and-roll star Elvis Presley, is hitting the airwaves for the first time, launching a $161,000 TV buy starting Tuesday, per AdImpact.
ICYMI: What ELSE is happening in the world:
The Air Force is delaying some payments, including re-enlistment bonuses and planned personnel moves, as Alabama lawmakers block Air Force funding due to a dispute about the location of the Space Command’s new headquarters.
A key Senate committee will vote on a bill later this month that would enshrine a code of conduct for the Supreme Court, including rules for recusal and financial disclosures.
On the first leg of his European trip, President Biden met with Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and King Charles III in London on Monday.
