Happening this Monday: Hollywood screenwriters and studios reach tentative deal to end monthslong strike… President Biden hosts meetings with Pacific islands leaders, as well as with Historically Black Colleges… Donald Trump campaigns in South Carolina… Sen. Bob Menendez, D-N.J., holds news conference after indictment, per NBC’s Julie Tsirkin… And it’s the RNC deadline for candidates to qualify for Wednesday’s GOP presidential debate.
But FIRST... The latest NBC News poll has plenty of numbers that should alarm both Democrats and Republicans ahead of the 2024 presidential election.
They include President Biden’s low approval rating (at 41%) and three-quarters of voters concerned about the president’s age and mental fitness, as well as GOP presidential frontrunner Donald Trump’s general unpopularity (35% positive, 54% negative rating) and nearly two-thirds concerned about his multiple criminal trials.
Yet if there’s one finding that should worry Democrats the most, it’s this number — just 38% of young voters ages 18 to 34 say they have high interest in the 2024 election, registering either a “9” or “10” in interest on a 10-point scale.
That compares with 68% of all voters in the poll expressing high interest, as well as 87% of seniors 65 and older and 79% of voters ages 50 to 64.
And it’s not just younger voters lagging in election interest. Black and Latino voters are at 53% and 51%, respectively, while white voters are at 73%.
By party, 75% of Republicans say they have high interest in the 2024 election, versus 68% of Democrats.
Yes, it’s still early in the cycle. And yes, Republicans are the ones who have an engaged primary contest, while Democrats do not — which could explain the disparity in election interest right now.
But the current election-interest percentages for young voters, Black voters and Latino voters are all down from what our poll showed at similar points in the 2008, 2012, 2016 and (especially) 2020 cycles.
Indeed, in our October 2019 NBC News poll, young-voter high interest was at 48%; Black voters were at 68%; Latino voters were at 69%; and Democrats were at 77% overall versus 75% for Republicans.
Bottom line: Democratic voters — as well as key parts of the party’s base — aren’t fired up and ready to go for 2024.
At least not yet.
Headline of the day
The number of the day is … 59%
That’s the share of Republican primary voters who say Donald Trump is their top choice in the crowded GOP presidential primary, according to a new NBC News national poll released Sunday.
That’s up from the 51% of GOP voters who selected Trump as their first choice in the June poll, as the former president consolidates support.
Behind Trump, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis received the support of 16% of voters who pick him as their first choice. That is down from 22% in June.
The only candidate whose support rose from June to September is former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, who garnered 7% of first choice votes from GOP voters in September, up from 4% in June.
Other numbers to know:
4 million: The number of federal government employees who will be left without pay if Congress doesn’t avert a government shutdown by Friday.
180: The number of miles away that ATACMS long-range tactical missiles can strike targets. President Biden has assured Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy that the U.S. will provide a small number of these missiles to Ukraine.
33: How many months a Jan. 6 rioter was sentenced to prison after he attacked a police officer and stole his shield during the riot at the Capitol.
More than 75,000: The number of Kaiser Permanente workers who are threatening to strike if a staffing crisis isn’t resolved.
More than 3 times: The rate at which female veterans report sexual trauma, compared to their male counterparts, a new report found.
1: The number of Republican mayors among the top 10 most populated U.S. cities, after Dallas Mayor Eric Johnson switched parties from Democrat to Republican on Friday.
Almost 150: The number of days members of the Writers Guild of America have been striking, as they reached a tentative agreement Sunday with some of Hollywood’s top media companies that could end the strike.
Eyes on 2024: Fallout from Menendez’s indictment continues
Sen. Bob Menendez, D-N.J., is expected to hold a press conference Monday as he faces mounting calls to resign following his Friday indictment on bribery and conspiracy charges, NBC News’ Julie Tsirkin reports.
Menendez called the allegations “baseless” on Friday.
The press conference is expected to be held “in Hudson County, NJ, where he got his start in politics, according to a source directly involved with the planning,” Tsirkin writes. “Menendez is expected to say he does not intend to resign, the source adds.”
Top Democrats, including New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy and Pennsylvania Sen. John Fetterman, have called on Menendez to step down, though other Democratic senators have been slow to join them.
Menendez, who is up for re-election next year, defiantly responded to calls to resign on Friday, saying in a statement, “I am not going anywhere.” That prompted Rep. Andy Kim, D-N.J., to announce that he would challenge the three-term senator in a primary.
“Not something I expected to do, but NJ deserves better,” Kim wrote on X, the social media platform previously known as Twitter.
Prior to the indictment, Menendez’s top-fundraising GOP challenger was Shirley Maia-Cusick, an immigration consultant who has largely been self-funding her campaign. Post-indictment, the GOP field to take on Menendez will at least not include former New Jersey GOP Gov Chris Christie, who told “Meet the Press” on Sunday that he has “no interest in being in the United States Senate.”
Menendez, meanwhile, is preparing for a legal battle, hiring attorney Abbe Lowell, per CNBC. Lowell is also defending Hunter Biden and also worked for Menendez when he faced corruption charges in 2015.
In other campaign news …
Sputtering anti-Trump effort: NBC News’ Vaughn Hillyard and Ben Kamisar report that “the hypothetical anti-Trump calvary within the Republican Party has yet to materialize, and GOP strategists tell NBC News that it may be too late.”
Spoiler alert: Team Biden is increasingly concerned that third-party presidential bids could spoil his chances of winning re-election next year, per NBC News’ Jonathan Allen and Carol E. Lee. Speaking of third parties, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., who is waging a long-shot primary bid against Biden, met privately with the Libertarian Party chairwoman in July, per the New York Times.
Strike politics: Biden’s visit to Michigan Tuesday to support striking auto workers “comes as he struggles to carve a meaningful role for himself in a crisis that could damage his re-election prospects,” write NBC News’ Peter Nicholas, Monica Alba and Megan Lebowitz. On the Republican side, the United Auto Workers president filed a complaint against Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., who praised former President Ronald Reagan’s decision to fire federal workers who went on strike.
Debatable: North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum appears to have met the Republican National Committee’s polling thresholds to qualify for this week’s GOP debate (but the RNC has the final say). The RNC has raised the polling and donor thresholds for the third debate in early November.
Pressure campaign: Top Democratic officials, donors and supporters lobbied Biden over the migrant crisis, and the administration announced last week it would grant temporary protected status to undocumented Venezuelan migrants, per NBC News’ Melissa Russo and Julia Ainsley.
New Hampshire or bust: Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie is the only GOP presidential candidate who has not campaigned in Iowa as he goes all-in on New Hampshire, per NBC News’ Emma Barnett.
DeSantis at Guantánamo: The New York Times explores the “unfounded claim” that DeSantis mistreated detainees while he served at Guantánamo Bay as a Navy lawyer.
Nevada gamble: The Nevada GOP voted over the weekend to approve rules changes that could bolster Trump as the state party vows to hold a caucus in February, discouraging candidates from participating in a state-run primary, per the AP. Trump’s campaign is reportedly committed to participating in the caucus.
Show me the money: Some donors who participated in Miami Mayor Francis Suarez’s fundraising gimmick, where he offered gift cards in exchange for a campaign donation, are still waiting for their money.
Tester’s test: Sen. Jon Tester, D-Mont., has campaigned as an “ethics crusader,” but his record “hasn’t always aligned with the narrative he has cultivated, nor has it always met the high standards he has set for himself and proposed for others,” writes NBC News’ Henry J. Gomez.
Sinema’s path: Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s political team has started laying out her path to victory if the Independent Arizona senator decides to run for re-election, according to a memo obtained by NBC News’ Sahil Kapur.
Abortion ads: Republicans are going on offense on abortion in Virginia’s legislative races, launching a new digital ad campaign aiming to paint Democrats as extreme on the issue, NBC News’ Gary Grumbach and Ryan Nobles report.
ICYMI: What ELSE is happening in the world
Supreme Court Justice Elena Kagan said on Friday that it would be a “good thing” for the Supreme Court to adhere to a code of ethics.
Talks led by the U.S. between Israel and Saudi Arabia to normalize relations between the two Middle Eastern countries are making progress, NBC News’ Andrea Mitchell and Yuliya Talmazan report.
A Nevada man who was a “fake elector” and aimed to interfere in the certification of Joe Biden’s presidential victory is launching a new effort to guard the Constitution, inspire activism and educate public officials, per NBC News’ Natasha Korecki.
And political/business consultant Bruce Mehlman looks at some of the most important political questions with 13 months to go until Election Day 2024.
