If it’s FRIDAY… President Biden travels to Hartford, Conn., to mark the one-year anniversary of the bipartisan gun-control legislation he signed into law… Biden allies question Democrats’ silence about Donald Trump’s recent indictment… Francis Suarez touts his record in speech after launching presidential bid… Ron DeSantis heads to Nevada to headline Saturday’s annual Basque Fry fundraiser… And “Meet the Press Now” interviews Asa Hutchinson.
But FIRST... Two key forces are driving America’s growing political divide, according to historical data from our NBC News (formerly NBC News/Wall Street Journal) poll.
One force is the demographic change in the Republican Party over the last 10 years, where whites without college degrees now make up a clear majority of today’s GOP.
In 2012, our poll found 48% of self-described Republicans were whites without college degrees, and another 40% who were whites with college degrees.
Ten years later, however, non-college whites now make up 62% of all Republicans, while the share of whites with college degrees has declined to 25%.
That transformation has produced changes in the GOP’s values and policy preferences.
Take the issue of free trade. In 2015 — before Trump became president — a nearly equal share of Democrats (56%) and Republicans (48%) said free trade with foreign countries is good for America. Yet by 2019, the gap here between Democrats (73%) and Republicans (52%) had grown to 21 points.
There’s also gun control. In 1995, 48% of Republicans agreed with a statement expressing frustration that the government will not do enough to regulate access to firearms.
Now? The portion of Republicans who agree with this statement is 22%.
The second big change our poll over the last 10 years has been a Democratic Party that’s become much more liberal.
In 2012’s merged NBC News polling, 43% of Democrats described themselves as liberal, with 19% calling themselves “very liberal.”
Ten years later, 55% of Democrats said they were liberal, with 29% being “very liberal.”
That’s produced changes in values and policy preferences, too
In 2013’s polling, only 10% of Democrats said they didn’t follow a religion. Ten years later, that’s grown to 38%.
On policy, meanwhile, 45% of Democrats said the government should do more to solve problems, according to the Dec. 1995 NBC/WSJ poll, versus 17% of Republicans who said the same.
Yet by April 2021, Republicans had pretty much stayed the same on this question (23% wanting the government to do more), while the Democratic percentage had grown to 82%.
For more on these changes, check out the Meet the Press Blog.
And for even more, see this presentation from the pollsters who conduct the NBC News poll. It’s a fascinating read.
Chart of the day: Democrats’ shift
Data Download: The number of the day is … 89%
That’s the share of Democrats who support abortion rights, agreeing that it should be legal always or most of the time, according to the April 2023 NBC News poll.
That’s up from 68% of Democrats who said the same in a September 2008 poll, an increase of 21 percentage points.
On the other side of the aisle, support for abortion among Republicans has remained relatively flat, with 25% of Republicans in 2008 believing that abortion should be legal most or all of the time and 28% of Republicans saying the same in 2023.
Among independents, support for abortion also has been fairly flat over the last 15 years, though independents are still largely more supportive of abortion access than Republicans. In 2008, 55% of independents agreed that abortion should be legal always or most of the time, while 57% of independents said the same in April of this year.
To read more about what our look-back in polling data means for the current political climate, check out the Meet the Press Blog.
Other numbers to know:
3: The number of people killed when a tornado struck Texas on Thursday.
6: The number of charges Defense Department leak suspect Jack Teixeira was indicted for on Thursday.
63%: The share of Americans who favor allowing the abortion pill mifepristone to be available by prescription, per new Gallup polling.
6: The number of weeks a GOP walkout has stymied the Oregon state Senate, before enough GOP lawmakers returned on Thursday to give the legislature a quorum, per the Associated Press.
2: The number of bills lawmakers introduced to freeze funds for building and renovating the Space Command’s current Colorado headquarters, as the Biden administration decides whether to keep headquarters there or move them to Alabama (as the former Trump administration promised).
14: The number of years to which a Michigan man was sentenced for his support of the Islamic State, which included traveling to Yemen and fighting for ISIS.
1.5 degrees Celsius: That’s how much global temperatures rose above pre-industrial levels in the beginning of June.
Eyes on 2024: Florida men divided on abortion
Abortion continues to be one of the dividing lines in the GOP presidential primary, and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis took aim at former President Donald Trump over his stance on their state’s six-week ban.
“We were able to deliver the heartbeat bill, which was a big, big deal. And while I appreciate what the former president has done in a variety of realms, he opposes that bill. He said it was ‘harsh’ to protect an unborn child when there’s a detectable heartbeat,” DeSantis told the Christian Broadcasting Network.
“I think that’s humane to do,” DeSantis added. “I think that’s what pro-lifers have been wanting to see good, pro-life protections, whether it’s Florida or Iowa under Kim Reynolds. Very important that you’re able to get this stuff done.”
But Trump isn’t the only GOP contender from Florida who criticized the state’s ban.
Miami Mayor Francis Suarez, who just launched his presidential run this week, told the Associated Press that he would back a federal ban on abortion after the first 15 weeks of pregnancy, with exceptions. But in terms of a six-week ban, Suarez said, “the country is not there yet”
Democrats, meanwhile, are leaning into the issue ahead of next year’s election. Vice President Kamala Harris is set to deliver a speech in battleground North Carolina next weekend to mark the anniversary of the Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade, per NBC News’ Peter Alexander, Kelly O’Donnell, Monica Alba and Rebecca Shabad.
In other campaign news…
DeSantis’ Nevada gamble: DeSantis is heading to Nevada this weekend — his first trip to the early primary state as a presidential candidate. And Trump’s team got testy when asked about DeSantis targeting a state where local Republicans have backed the former president, NBC News’ Natasha Korecki and Henry J. Gomez report.
To pledge or not to pledge? At least two Republican presidential primary candidates — former Govs. Asa Hutchinson and Chris Christie — have said they’ll sign a pledge to support the eventual Republican nominee, a pledge required by the RNC to earn a spot on the debate stage. But both former governors have indicated that they may not uphold the pledge.
Ballot battle: Biden is not likely to be on the primary ballot in Iowa and New Hampshire if those states defy the Democratic National Committee and hold their primaries before South Carolina, per Axios.
Directing communications: Biden’s re-election campaign named Michael Tyler, a veteran of the DNC and New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker’s campaign, as its communications director.
Trump trial: A second defamation trial against Trump involving writer E. Jean Carroll, who says Trump raped her in the 1990s (which Trump has denied), has been set for Jan. 15. Trump was found liable for sexual assault in a previous trial, but Carroll’s attorneys amended her defamation suit after Trump made comments about Carroll during a CNN town hall.
Do it, you won’t: Florida Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis pushed back at California Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom’s criticism of him in recent weeks by telling the Democrat to “stop pussyfooting around,” questioning whether he wants to “throw your hat in the ring and challenge Joe [Biden].”
Primary positioning: Ohio’s GOP Senate primary “is turning into a real-time illustration of the different ways ambitious Republicans are navigating Donald Trump’s latest legal troubles,” writes NBC News’ Henry J. Gomez.
EMILY’s List weighs in: Roll Call reports that the EMILY’s List, which backs women candidates who support abortion rights, is backing Democratic organizer Joanna Weiss in her bid to replace Democratic Rep. Katie Porter, who is running for Senate.
Making a comeback: Two Tennessee Democratic state representatives who were expelled from the legislature after protesting on the floor against gun violence — Justin Jones and Justin J. Pearson — are now a step closer to returning to the chamber. Both won their primary races for their previous seats on Thursday, per NBC News’ Adam Edelman.
ICYMI: What ELSE is happening in the world:
The Supreme Court on Thursday rejected a challenge to the Indian Child Welfare Act, upholding parts of a law intended to keep Native American children within tribes.
African leaders arrived in Ukraine on Friday to meet with Ukrainian leaders and seek a resolution to the conflict.
