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What to watch as the battle for the GOP's future heads to Indiana

Open races for governor and the Senate, as well as some key House primaries, are on tap Tuesday.
Image: Rep. Victoria Spartz speaks on Capitol Hill
Rep. Victoria Spartz, R-Ind., at a news conference Wednesday in Washington.Anna Moneymaker / Getty Images

Voters will head the polls for state and congressional primaries Tuesday in Indiana, where most of the action will be in GOP primaries up and down the ballot. 

The winners of the open Republican primaries for governor and the Senate will be favored to win in the November general election. The governor's race also presents an early test of former President Donald Trump’s endorsement. 

The primaries also feature open contests in three ruby-red House seats that are likely to send the GOP nominees to Congress next year. And a Republican congresswoman is facing a challenge from her right, centered in part on aid for Ukraine. 

Indiana is home to just one competitive House race in the general election, with three Republicans competing to take on Democratic Rep. Frank Mrvan. 

Polls close at 6 p.m. and 7 p.m. ET across the state, part of which is in the Central time zone. Here are three things to watch Tuesday.

A battle over 'America first'

GOP Rep. Victoria Spartz initially planned to retire this year, but she reversed course right before the state’s filing deadline and decided to run for a third term in the 5th District outside Indianapolis. But some Republicans who had been running to succeed her stayed in the race.

Her chief opponent is state Rep. Chuck Goodrich, who has largely self-funded his campaign, blanketing the airwaves with ads attacking Spartz in part for her support for aid for Ukraine, claiming she doesn’t sufficiently support Trump’s “America first” agenda.  

Spartz, who was born in Ukraine, was a vocal supporter of aid when Russia invaded the country more than two years ago. But she has also sharply criticized Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and opposed the most recent aid package for the country.

Multiple candidates in the primary could split the anti-Spartz vote, but the race could be an early test for how divisions over Ukraine aid are affecting GOP primaries.

A test (and an easy win) for Trump’s endorsement 

Trump has taken sides in the two statewide GOP primaries for the Senate and governor, both open contests. GOP Gov. Eric Holcomb can’t run for re-election because of term limits, and Republican Sen. Mike Braun’s decision to run for governor opened up his Senate seat. 

The top statewide race on the ballot is the primary for governor, and it has been the focus of a massive amount of spending. Trump is backing Braun, the one-term senator and former businessman who is leaving Washington at the end of the year. But he faces competition from a crowded field that includes former state Commerce Secretary Brad Chambers, Lt. Gov. Suzanne Crouch and businessman Eric Doden. And there has been a hail of ad spending in the race — more than $44.7 million, according to the ad-tracking firm AdImpact — as candidates and outside groups duke it out on the airwaves. 

In the Senate primary, Trump is backing Rep. Jim Banks, the former head of the conservative Republican Study Committee who was among the Republicans then-Republican leader Kevin McCarthy tapped to serve on the House Jan. 6 committee (before then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi overruled his appointment).

Banks voted against certifying the 2020 Electoral College results and signed on to an unsuccessful Texas lawsuit challenging Joe Biden’s victory in a handful of battleground states. 

While businessman and farmer John Rust had poured $2.6 million of his own money into a challenge, he was kicked off the ballot over his party affiliation, leaving Banks running in the primary unopposed. 

Two former congressmen eye comebacks

Two former House members are looking to return to Congress, but they face a barrage of ad spending from groups looking to block their comebacks in deeply Republican districts. 

Former Rep. Marlin Stutzman, who left Congress to make an unsuccessful Senate run in 2016, is running in the 3rd District to replace Banks. And while he has received support from the political arm of the House Freedom Caucus and from GOP Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky, Stutzman has also faced some opposition. A group called America Leads Action Inc., which has targeted other candidates aligned with the Freedom Caucus, has launched ads against him. 

Winning for Women Action Fund, which supports female Republican candidates, has also hit the airwaves to support former state circuit Judge Wendy Davis. Businessman Tim Smith, who is self-funding his campaign, has outspent all candidates and outside groups on the airwaves, according to AdImpact.

Smith and Davis have also both drawn attacks from the conservative Club for Growth Action. The group’s PAC hasn't endorsed in the race, but the PAC did back Stutzman in his 2016 Senate run. 

Meanwhile, in the 8th District, a crowded field of Republicans is competing to replace retiring GOP Rep. Larry Bucshon. Most outside groups engaged in the race have been focused on former Rep. John Hostettler, who left the House nearly two decades ago. Hostettler has drawn the ire of two pro-Israel groups, the Republican Jewish Coalition and the United Democracy Project, as well as America Leads Action. But he has also gotten some air cover from a super PAC tied to Paul, who appeared in an ad supporting him. 

The Republican Jewish Coalition is instead backing state Sen. Mark Messmer, who has also gotten support from an allied super PAC. The other top fundraisers include surgeon Richard Moss and Army reservist Dominick Kavanaugh. 

Republicans will also select a likely new member of Congress in the red 6th District, where GOP Rep. Greg Pence is retiring. Outside groups haven't engaged in that primary, but self-funding candidates, including former Indianapolis City Council member Jefferson Shreve, state Rep. Mike Speedy and businessman Jamison Carrier, have blanketed the airwaves, according to AdImpact.