Tonight's outcome will reverberate beyond PA's 18th district
The race between Democrat Conor Lamb and Republican Rick Saccone has occasionally been described as a high-dollar contest for a district that's "going extinct." That's partly accurate: the Pennsylvania Supreme Court's decision to strike down the current GOP-drawn congressional map as an unconstitutional partisan gerrymander mean that all 18 districts will be newly configured in November. But the Republican outside groups attempting to rescue Saccone, including the National Republican Congressional Committee and the Congressional Leadership Fund, wouldn't have spent millions on TV ads attacking Lamb if the outcome didn't have big implications for the fall.
First, the race's outcome will have big local repercussions. If Lamb wins tonight, he would likely run for re-election in the new 17th District, a seat that takes in much more of his suburban Allegheny County base than the current 18th District and is much more favorable to Democrats. He might even be the favorite there against GOP Rep. Keith Rothfus in the fall, assuming both Lamb and Rothfus choose to run in the district where they live. If Saccone wins, he would have the inside track to win reelection in the new 14th District, which takes in much of the current 18th District but is roughly three points more Republican. Regardless of who wins, both Lamb and Saccone will only have a week to plot their next moves: Pennsylvania's filing deadline for the November elections is March 20.
Second, tonight's outcome will reverberate nationally. If Lamb wins, the election would tell Republicans that even districts that voted for President Trump by 20 points may not be safe this fall. It could also indicate that the tax cut bill - a key element of GOP groups' messaging throughout February on the Pittsburgh airwaves - failed to motivate Trump supporters to get behind Saccone sufficiently, a development that could cause several more incumbent Republicans to contemplate retirement. Even if Saccone wins, he's unlikely to do so by nearly the same margin as Trump did in the district. And that would signal it's become possible for Democrats to make inroads in GOP districts by running to their party's right on issues like guns, trade and energy - just like Lamb did.