The Top 10 Most Likely House Flips
Earlier this week, we unveiled our top ten most likely party flips in the nation's Senate and gubernatorial races.
Here's our take on the seats in the United States House that are most likely to change parties in 2018, starting from the most likely at No. 1.
1. PA-5 (R): With the state’s redrawn congressional map, this new district — already being vacated by retiring (and scandal-plagued) Republican Rep. Pat Meehan — is the closest Democrats will come to a guaranteed pickup, with the seat transforming into one Clinton won by almost 30 points.
2. FL-27 (R): Retiring Rep.Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, the first Cuban American as well as the first Hispanic woman elected to Congress, may have been the only Republican who could have held on to this majority-Latino Miami district, where Hillary Clinton bested Donald Trump by nearly 20 points.
3. NJ-2 (R): The departure of retiring Republican Rep. Frank LoBiondo, a moderate with strong ties to labor in the state, leaves what looks like a good opening for Jeff Van Drew, a popular state senator whom Democrats had long tried to recruit.
4. MN-1 (D): Democratic Rep. Tim Walz barely escaped defeat in 2016 in this largely rural Rochester-area district. His gubernatorial run leaves the seat open, giving Republicans a good shot at a district that broke for Trump 53 percent to Clinton's 38 percent.
5. VA-10 (R): Strategists in both parties agree that incumbent Rep. Barbara Comstock is probably the country’s most vulnerable incumbent; her suburban Washington D.C. district is rapidly becoming more diverse, affluent and highly educated — a tough match for a Republican in the age of Trump.
6. AZ-2 (R): Republicans are hopeful that Hispanic Chamber of Commerce chief Lea Marquez-Peterson will prove to be a strong candidate here, but Democrats — led by frontrunner Democratic candidate former Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick — would be well-positioned in a district that chose Clinton over Trump by a five point margin.
7. MN-2: (R) Freshman Republican Jason Lewis barely won this race in 2016 against former medical device executive Angie Craig, who’s gunning for a rematch in this mostly suburban/exurban area near the Twin Cities.
8. PA-6 (R): After Pennsylvania’s redistricting, the seat held by Republican Ryan Costello is now one that Hillary Clinton carried by a 10 point margin. Democrats like the chances for top recruit Chrissy Houlahan, a former U.S. Air Force captain and businesswoman.
9. IA-1 (R): Democrats have made GOP Rep. Rod Blum a top target — and Blum’s ethics woes over his failure to disclose his role with an internet company aren’t exactly helping his chances. State Rep. Abby Finkenauer and former U.S. Department of Labor official Thomas Heckroth are among the candidates on the Dem side.
10. NJ-11 (R): After the retirement of House Appropriations Chairman Rodney Freylinghuysen (who likely would have had a difficult reelection race even if he’d chosen to run again), Democrats have a strong candidate in this affluent northern New Jersey area in frontrunner Mikie Sherill, a onetime U.S. Navy helicopter pilot and prosecutor.
Honorable mention: Other races we're watching
* CA-39 (R): — The demographics in Orange County just aren’t trending the GOP’s way. Republicans think they have a good candidate in Young Kim, retiring Republican Ed Royce’s pick to be his successor, but if Democrats don’t step on themselves in the top-two primary (see below), they should be well positioned to take on the GOP nominee.
* CA-49 (R): If Darrell Issa had stayed in his seat, he’d be very close to the top of this list, but his decision to resign gave Republicans a little bit of breathing room. Their hope (and a real possibility) is that Democrats fail to clear their crowded primary field, leaving a gaggle of candidates to split the Democratic vote and shut the party out of the top-two primary contest in June.
* Others receiving votes: CA-25 (Knight), FL-26 (Curbelo), MN-8 (OPEN/Nolan), NY-19 (Faso), PA-15 (OPEN/Dent)