Happening this Tuesday: First Lady Jill Biden tests positive for Covid… President Biden blasts Donald Trump in Labor Day speech… Texas Senate trial of Attorney General Ken Paxton convenes, NBC’s Jane Timm writes… And special congressional primaries take place in Rhode Island and Utah.
But FIRST… Brace yourselves for what promises to be a messy and chaotic September.
And much of it will be happening off the 2024 presidential campaign trail and instead on Capitol Hill, per NBC’s Sahil Kapur.
The first order of business is averting a possible government shutdown by Sept. 30. “The Democratic-led Senate returns Tuesday, and the two chambers are far from agreement, as Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s right-wing members rebel against a short-term bill to prevent a shutdown and buy more time for negotiations,” Kapur writes.
Then there’s the threat of an impeachment inquiry against President Biden — “as a restive conservative wing of the narrow House GOP majority attempts to flex its muscle on investigations,” Kapur adds.
(McCarthy is trying to prevent a government shutdown by arguing to his House conservative colleagues that a shutdown could hinder the investigations into Biden.)
Oh, and then there are all the different trials Donald Trump is facing (where we’re sure to see motions, challenges and possible date changes later this fall), the health of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (after his apparent freeze last week) and President Joe Biden’s upcoming G-20 trip (after the first lady came down with Covid).
Add them all up — a possible shutdown, the threat of impeachment, Trump’s trials, the health of political leaders and a big overseas trip — and you not only get a hectic start to the fall.
You get another critical test for America’s democracy.
Headline of the day
The number of the day is … 47%
That’s the share of registered voters in Texas who believe Texas GOP Attorney General Ken Paxton “took actions that justify removing him from elected office,” according to a University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Poll released over the weekend, ahead of Paxton’s state Senate impeachment trial that begins this week. =
Just 18% of registered voters in the poll say Paxton did not take actions that justify that removal, with 35% saying they either didn’t know or had no opinion.
Paxton was impeached by an overwhelming majority of state House lawmakers, a majority of whom are Republican, on 20 counts in May and his fate will be decided by the majority Republican state Senate.
For more on the latest in Paxton’s impeachment saga, check out reporting by NBC News’ Jane C. Timm on NBCNews.com.
Other numbers to know
46 percentage points: Former President Donald Trump’s national lead in the Republican presidential primary among GOP primary voters in a new Wall Street Journal poll.
64,000: The number of Burning Man attendees who were on site at the festival on Monday, when they were finally able to leave after heavy flooding prompted a shelter-in-place order.
18: The number of years in federal prison Proud Boy Ethan Nordean was sentenced to for his role in the 2021 Capitol riot.
10: The number of years in federal prison Proud Boy Dominic Pezzola was sentenced to for his role in the Capitol riot. Shortly after telling the judge he was a “changed and humble man,” Pezzola raised his fist to yell “Trump won!” while walking out of the courtroom after being sentenced.
76: The age that celebrated musician Jimmy Buffett was when he died over the weekend after suffering from a rare skin cancer.
Eyes on 2024: Before we get there, what to watch in 2023
The 2024 presidential election is set to be historic, but before the ball drops in Times Square on Jan. 1, there are plenty of elections to get through in 2023 that can shine a light on what to expect next year.
First up, on this Tuesday, voters in Rhode Island and Utah head to the polls in two special congressional primary elections. The Rhode Island seat is safely Democratic, while the Utah seat is safely Republican, so whoever party voters select this week in their respective primaries is expected to win each general election in November.
Later this year, three gubernatorial elections in deep red states could clue us in to what voters are looking for over the next four years. In Kentucky, a popular Democratic governor — Andy Beshear — is facing a challenge from GOP Attorney General Daniel Cameron and is hoping to win re-election as the only statewide elected Democrat.
In Mississippi and Louisiana, Republicans hope to win the day by flipping the governor’s mansion in Baton Rouge red after two terms of a Democratic governor and by keeping Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves in his seat for another term, despite his low approval rating and an ever-evolving welfare scandal that made national headlines last year.
Beyond that, upcoming legislative elections in Virginia and a vote on a contentious constitutional amendment to enshrine abortion rights in Ohio could signal whether the issue of abortion rights still has enough saliency among voters to be a decisive issue in 2024.
For more on the elections to watch this year, check out NBCNews.com.
In other campaign news…
Drawing contrasts: In a Labor Day speech, President Biden drew contrasts between the policy successes of his administration and those of former President Donald Trump, though he never mentioned Trump by name. Meanwhile, Democratic elites are confronting the uncomfortable reality that voters aren’t as excited by Biden as they hoped, NBC News’ Peter Nicholas and Megan Lebowitz report.
Sleepy or sneaky: After spending years painting President Joe Biden as “Sleepy Joe,” former President Trump is trying to rebrand Biden as corrupt.
Oppo dump: Jeff Roe, who helms the pro-DeSantis super PAC Never Back Down, took credit for passing opposition research about businessman Vivek Ramaswamy to reporters, according to an audio tape reported on by Politico.
Ramaswamy on McConnell: Ramaswamy said Friday night that it would be “most prudent” if Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell “stepped aside” after a second public health incident.
Sununu weighs in on 14th Amendment questions: New Hampshire GOP Gov. Chris Sununu told “Meet the Press” on Sunday that he expects Trump to be on the state’s presidential ballot amid questions about whether he could be barred over his actions after the 2020 election.
Unconstitutional: A Florida judge ruled Friday that a redistricting plan backed by DeSantis in the state is unconstitutional and must be redrawn because it minimizes the ability of Black voters in one area of the state to select a representative of their choice.
Never too young to be involved: NBC News’ Emma Barnett and Alec Hernandez profile a 15-year-old New Hampshire resident, Quinn Mitchell, who has been to more than 85 campaign events and met more than 35 White House hopefuls over the last two elections.
Chaos in Nevada: NBC News’ Natasha Korecki details infighting between the Nevada Republican Party, which wants to hold a party caucus to decide their GOP presidential nominee two days after a state-sanctioned primary, and several Republican presidential campaigns.
No vacancy: Kentucky Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear did not answer questions about who he would appoint to fill Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s, R-Ky., seat if her were to resign his post early. “There is no vacancy. So he has said he’s going to serve out his term and I fully believe him,” Beshear told reporters.
Jumping into the fray: Huntington Mayor Steve Williams is the first Democrat to enter the race to be West Virginia’s next governor, Politico reports.
Democratic infighting: In Rhode Island’s congressional special election primary, the far left is waging an internal war and criticizing a candidate backed by Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt. and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y. as insufficiently progressive.
ICYMI: What ELSE is happening in the world:
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un may travel to Russia to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss a possible arms sale.
Elon Musk is threatening to sue the Anti-Defamation League, after blasting the group in a series of posts on X, the social media platform formerly known as Twitter that Musk owns, on Monday.
