Happening this Wednesday: Dem Gov. Andy Beshear wins re-election in Kentucky… GOP Gov. Tate Reeves holds on in Mississippi… Democrats defeat Republicans in battle for control of Virginia’s legislature, resulting in a blow to GOP Gov. Glenn Youngkin… Ballot measure enshrining abortion rights passes in Ohio… And the big takeaway from last night: Abortion remains a significant liability for the Republican Party.
But FIRST… Now that the elections of 2023 are over, it’s time to turn to this week’s other big political event: tonight’s third Republican presidential debate.
The GOP showdown takes place in Miami beginning at 8:00 pm ET, and it’s moderated by NBC’s Lester Holt, NBC’s Kristen Welker and Salem Radio Network’s Hugh Hewitt.
And what stands out about the debate — beyond former President Donald Trump’s no-show (again) — is how much the Republican National Committee’s debate qualifications have whittled down the GOP field’s size.
In the first debate in August, there were eight Republican candidates (minus Trump). In the second debate, you had seven participants.
Now at tonight’s event, there are just five: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie.
This winnowing of the field matters, because it changes the math for the first GOP contests in Iowa and New Hampshire — even if some candidates who don’t qualify for the debates (like Asa Hutchinson and Doug Burgum) continue to run.
If any Republican is going to stop Trump and his dominant lead, that candidate has to consolidate the anti-Trump vote.
Then again, five remaining candidates — or even two or three — probably doesn’t do the trick when Trump is at or close to 50% in Iowa.
Other dynamics we’re watching:
Tonight’s debate comes after Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds’ endorsement of DeSantis. Can he capitalize on it? Or does it even matter?
The debate also comes as Haley has moved up (slightly) in the polls. Will she be the other candidates’ top target tonight?
And it comes after Scott’s previous debate performances have hurt his standing in the GOP horserace. Is it now or never for the GOP senator?
Headline of the day
The number of the day is … 18 points
That’s the gap between President Joe Biden’s approval rating among voters who cast ballots for Ohio’s abortion ballot measure (39%), and the share of voters who backed the constitutional amendment to enshrine abortion rights (57%).
The wide gap highlights the popularity of abortion rights, even in red states where Biden is unpopular. So far, Ohio is the seventh state to put abortion rights to a statewide vote since Roe v. Wade was overturned in 2022 and so far, all seven have either embraced abortion rights or rejected measures that would weaken abortion protections.
Some of these votes have taken place in solidly blue states like California — but others have been in deep-red places like Kentucky, Montana and Kansas.
NBC’s’ Chuck Todd examines the salience of the issue, and explains why Ohio’s result means Biden (even with his low approval numbers) can breathe a sigh of relief heading into 2024 — for now.
Eyes on 2024: Five 2024 clues in Tuesday’s elections
On Monday, we asked five questions about what Tuesday’s elections in Virginia, Ohio, Mississippi, and Kentucky could tell us about 2024.
Here’s what we learned:
1. Just how potent is the issue of abortion after Roe v. Wade’s overturn a year ago?
Voters once again signaled support for the right to an abortion — this time approving a ballot measure to enshrine the right to an abortion in Ohio’s state constitution, up until fetal viability, with 57% backing the measure and 43% opposing it.
And the abortion issue helped carry Democrats to victory in Virginia, where they held on to the state Senate and flipped control of the House of Delegates after warning that GOP success could lead to a ban on abortions.
NBC’s Adam Edelman writes Tuesday’s results show that abortion rights “remain a major political force for Democrats and a vulnerability for Republicans across the country.”
2. How strong is the power of incumbency?
Incumbency remains a major advantage in governors’ races, with both Gov. Andy Beshear, D-Ky., and Gov. Tate Reeves, R-Miss., fending off their challengers. Beshear earned more than 52% of the vote, defeating GOP state Attorney Daniel Cameron by 5 points and widening his margin from his first narrow victory in 2019.
Reeves also got 52% of the vote and defeated his Democratic challenger, Brandon Presley, by around 5 points.
3. Does Kentucky remain a bellwether?
This question won’t be answered until 2024, but Beshear’s victory is likely a welcome sign for Democrats since the Kentucky race has previewed presidential victories. Beshear’s victory could provide a roadmap for Democrats candidates looking to buck efforts to tie them to Biden, which Republicans attempted to do in the final stretch of the Kentucky race.
But the dynamics of Beshear’s race are difficult to replicate. He built a strong brand that was separate from the national party over his four years in office. Plus, he didn’t have to run on the same ballot as Biden, which will not be the case for Democrats next year.
4. Is Glenn Youngkin’s star about to take off? Or fizzle out?
Judging by last night’s election results, it could be starting to dim. Youngkin went all-in on his state’s legislative elections, raising millions of dollars to support GOP candidates and hitting the campaign trail himself.
He also led the party’s messaging on abortion in the state, calling for a ban on abortions after 15 weeks, with exceptions for rape, incest and the life of the mother, and other GOP candidates campaigned on that platform.
Youngkin’s next steps are not clear, especially after the GOP losses. He cannot run for re-election, and he has brushed off questions about whether he would make a late run for president, saying he remained focused on the state legislative elections.
5. And will Democrats continue their winning streak in low-turnout elections?
Despite the loss in Mississippi, which was a tough climb for Presley given the state’s partisan lean, Democrats certainly had plenty to celebrate on Tuesday after some concerning poll numbers for Biden in recent days.
“Across the country tonight, democracy won and MAGA lost,” Biden posted on X, the social media site formerly known as Twitter. “Voters vote. Polls don’t. Now let’s go win next year.”
ICYMI: What ELSE is happening in the world:
The Democratic-led Senate on Wednesday confirmed President Biden’s 150th judge.
The special counsel overseeing an investigation into Hunter Biden, President Biden’s son, told the House Judiciary Committee in closed-door testimony on Tuesday that he was never deterred from moving forward with charges against the younger Biden.
On Tuesday night, House lawmakers, including 22 Democrats, voted to censure Rep. Rashida Tlaib, D-Mich., on the House floor over remarks she made about the Israel-Hamas war.
In oral arguments on Tuesday, the Supreme Court indicated that it would uphold a federal law that bans people from owning firearms who are under domestic violence restraining orders, NBC’s Lawrence Hurley reports.
