If it’s THURSDAY… President Biden travels to Scranton, Pa., to pay respect to the late Ellen Casey (Pennsylvania’s former first lady and mother to current Sen. Bob Casey, D-Pa.)… Vivek Ramaswamy delivers a foreign-policy speech at the Nixon Library in California… Tim Scott places $8 million ad buy in Iowa and New Hampshire… And NBC’s Ryan Nobles and Frank Thorp V preview next year’s big MT-SEN race.
But FIRST… Despite Donald Trump’s multiple indictments, the latest national Quinnipiac poll shows the former president with about the same fav/unfav rating (38% favorable, 57% negative) as President Biden’s (40% favorable, 55% unfavorable).
(That poll also finds a nearly tied hypothetical race between the two men among registered voters — Biden 47%, Trump 46%.)
And our most recent NBC News poll had Biden’s fav/unfav in the same territory (39% positive, 48% negative) as Hillary Clinton’s was in our Oct. 2016 poll (40% positive, 50% negative).
Raise your hand if you ever thought that Biden’s popularity — with his “Scranton Joe” brand — would be in the same ballpark as Hillary Clinton’s in 2016 near the end of that brutal campaign?
Or Trump’s — after Jan. 6 and his multiple indictments.
It’s gotten lost in Trump’s legal dramas, the GOP presidential race and even the more positive economic news, but it remains an important story about 2024: Biden’s political standing has eroded considerably since 2020.
Part of it is the inevitable decline from the campaign trail to the Oval Office. Part of it is probably age. And another part might be the GOP’s campaign against Biden, his family and his son Hunter. (Remember, that GOP campaign dates back to that 2019 Trump phone call to Ukraine’s Zelenskyy: “There’s a lot of talk about Biden’s son…”)
The good news for Biden is that his standing remains stronger than Trump’s. (It’s just a couple of points higher in Quinnipiac, but it’s much better than Trump’s 34% positive, 56% negative rating in the latest NBC News poll.)
Also, in the most recent NBC News poll, Trump’s “very negative” number (49%) is much higher than Biden’s (39%). So attitudes against Trump are more intense than they are against Biden.
And the issue of abortion in the wake of Roe v. Wade’s overturn promises to be a potent weapon for Democrats come Nov. 2024 — no matter Biden’s fav/unfav rating.
But when we start gaming out a possible Biden vs. Trump rematch, it’s important to note Biden’s weakened standing since 2020.
Then again, the same decline is true for Trump.
Headline of the day
Data Download: The number of the day is … $8 million
That’s how much South Carolina GOP Sen. Tim Scott’s presidential campaign is spending on new ad buys in Iowa and New Hampshire, NBC News’ Nnamdi Egwuonwu and Ali Vitali report. Much of the new spending involves ad reservations through November, and Egwuonwu and Vitali note that Scott will be the first candidate to reserve airtime after Labor Day.
Egwuonwu and Vitali write that “the sheer size of the purchase underscores a long-touted Scott camp advantage: having cash on hand that almost immediately translated to the airwaves. That’s now starting to pay off. At a town hall in Iowa this week, audience members recited lines from his ads back to him.”
Scott has been the top-spending candidate on the airwaves so far this month, but two other outside groups have surpassed other groups and candidates on the airwaves. Best of America PAC, a super PAC backing North Dakota Gov. Dough Burgum, and Stand for America Fund Inc., a super PAC backing former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley, have each spent more than $2 million on the airwaves so far this month, per AdImpact.
Other numbers to know:
200: The number of days before March 4, the date Fulton County D.A. Fani Willis proposed to start the trial in the Georgia election interference case, where Trump and 18 others face charges.
34: The age of the judge who will oversee Trump’s Georgia case, who has been on the bench for only six months, the Wall Street Journal reports.
72%: The share of gun owners who call protection a “major reason” why they own a gun, according to new survey data from the Pew Research Center.
36%: President Biden’s approval rating on his handling of the economy in a new AP-NORC poll.
$122,000: The size of a payment that Texas House impeachment managers claim state Attorney General Ken Paxton sent to allegedly cover for free home renovations he received for free, the Texas Tribune reports.
1,159%: The percent increase in the price of carboplatin, a chemotherapy drug, in the last few weeks, according to an oncologist interviewed for NBC News’ new look at allegations of price gouging of chemotherapy drugs.
Eyes on 2024: Asa Hutchinson confident as debate looms
Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson may be struggling to gain support and donors in a crowded field of GOP presidential hopefuls, but in a new interview with NBC News’ Jillian Frankel, he predicted he’d ultimately amass support from enough donors to qualify for next week’s GOP presidential debate.
Hutchinson has until Monday evening to present the Republican National Committee with proof he hit their fundraising requirements. He told Frankel he still had not hit those requirements, but expects to do so before the deadline.
Hutchinson admitted, however, that falling short would deal a significant blow to his campaign.
“I’m preparing for that debate and planning on being there,” Hutchinson said. But he added that if a candidate does not make the debate, “you’ve got to ask yourself some question[s].”
“You know, will I be on the second debate stage, and can you meet the thresholds required for that? And obviously that becomes more challenging if you don’t have the exposure from the first debate. And so, it’s really important to be there,” he added.
Watch more of the interview on NBCNews.com.
In other campaign news…
Counter-programming: As former President Donald Trump prepares to travel to Georgia to be booked after his fourth indictment, NBC News’ Jonathan Allen, Matt Dixon, Henry J. Gomez and Allan Smith report on the possibility of him doing it on the same day as next week’s GOP presidential debate to snatch the headlines away from his rivals.
More counter-programming: Biden’s campaign “will have a significant presence on the ground and on the airwaves” in Milwaukee for next week’s GOP debate, NBC News’ Monica Alba reports. DNC Chairman Jamie Harrison and Biden campaign co-chair Cedric Richmond are expected to be in Milwaukee, while another round of ads will launch in battleground states.
“A hard truth”: Former Vice President Mike Pence defended Georgia Republican Gov. Brian Kemp’s recent declaration that Georgia’s election was not stolen.
DeSantis the dad: Time Magazine caught up with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis to discuss parents’ rights, transgender rights, his own experience as a candidate and more during a swing through Iowa.
Haley as the lone woman: Former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley discussed the gender dynamics in the GOP primary race during a new interview with Politico.
Big Sky Battle: Sen. Jon Tester, D-Mont., is a top GOP target in 2024, and NBC News’ Frank Thorp and Ryan Nobles delve into his re-election race in their new report from the Big Sky State.
You’re fired: NBC News’ Henry Gomez scooped that Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose fired his official press secretary because of messages on X, the social media platform formerly known as Twitter, which were critical of Trump and others. LaRose recently caught Trump’s attention for a “Meet the Press NOW” interview where he made supportive comments about Pence, Gomez reported.
Unmasked: A fundraiser for embattled New York Republican Rep. George Santos was indicted on federal criminal charges after being accused of impersonating a top GOP aide while raising money.
Fraud hunters: Conservative activists looking for voter fraud are testing a new computer program to search for fraudulent voter registrations, NBC News’ Jane C. Timm reports.
ICYMI: What ELSE is happening in the world:
A federal appeals court upheld some restrictions on a pill regularly used for medical abortions, but the effects of the ruling are delayed — due to an earlier Supreme Court decision.
A new lawsuit accuses Hawaii’s biggest power utility of negligence ahead of the tragic fire that swept through Maui, NBC News’ Phil McCausland, Lewis Kamb and Daniel Arkin report. Meanwhile, President Biden said he and first lady Jill Biden will travel to the island Monday.
NBC News’ Julia Ainsley reports on how the idea for the controversial buoys in the Rio Grande stems from the Trump administration.
