Happening this Monday: Israeli forces continue to advance into Gaza… Ron DeSantis, in “Meet the Press” interview, defends banning pro-Palestinian groups from Florida’s colleges… Donald Trump maintains commanding lead in Iowa, per second NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll… Poll also finds Nikki Haley, who files for ballot in South Carolina, now tied for second in Iowa with DeSantis… And President Biden holds White House event on artificial intelligence at 2:30 pm ET.
But FIRST… Not only does former President Donald Trump hold a nearly 30-point lead in Iowa, according to our second NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll ahead of the Jan. 15 GOP caucuses.
He’s doing so with the most committed and enthusiastic likely Republican caucusgoers.
Overall, the poll finds Trump at 43% among likely GOP caucusgoers, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis at 16%, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley at 16%, and Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., at 7%; no other candidate gets more than 4%.
(In August’s poll, it was Trump 42%, DeSantis 19%, Scott 9% and Haley 6%.)
But these numbers stand out even more to us: Just 41% of likely Republican caucusgoers say their minds are completely made up, versus 54% who say they could be persuaded to change their first-choice pick.
Yet a whopping 63% of Trump’s supporters say their minds are completely made up, compared with just about a third of DeSantis’ and Haley’s backers who say the same.
Additionally, the poll finds that Trump’s supporters are much more enthusiastic about their candidate than other caucusgoers are.
Overall, 30% of likely Republican caucusgoers say they’re “extremely” enthusiastic about their first-choice selection.
By candidate, however, 47% of Trump’s backers are extremely enthusiastic about their candidate, versus 25% of DeSantis’s supporters and 19% of Haley’s voters.
We’re still 77 days away until the Iowa caucuses; Trump faces more and more legal challenges; the GOP presidential field is getting smaller and smaller (with former Vice President Mike Pence’s exit over the weekend); and Iowa has had a history of producing surprises.
Yet unless those committed and enthusiastic Trump supporters change their minds, the former president remains in the driver’s seat in Iowa.
Headline of the day
The number of the day is … 143
That’s the number of days former Vice President Mike Pence’s presidential campaign lasted before he announced suddenly on Saturday at the annual Republican Jewish Coalition convention in Las Vegas that he was dropping out of the race.
Since he launched the campaign in early June, Pence struggled to gain ground among voters nationally and in key early GOP primary and caucus states.
His latest quarterly campaign finance filing showed his campaign $600,000 in debt and with just $1.2 million on hand. And, despite qualifying for the first and second GOP primary debates, his campaign struggled to gain the 70,000 total individual donors needed to qualify for the third debate next week.
And don’t miss this lookback at Pence’s campaign by NBC’s Sarah Dean.
Eyes on 2024: DeSantis discusses Israel, shootings and Trump on “Meet the Press”
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis joined “Meet the Press” on Sunday, weighing in on recent developments in Israel and on that mass shooting in Maine.
Here are some of the highlights:
On Israel’s push into Gaza: “I would support Israel’s right to end this problem once and for all. Obviously, we have an interest in the hostages being rescued. I would work with them … I think it’s important for the United States and one of our strongest allies that we stand with them, publicly and privately, in word and in deed, because I think if they do anything else than eliminate Hamas entirely, they’re just going to face these types of attacks again in the future.”
On limiting civilian deaths: “Well, any time you’re involved in military conflict, you want to be able to achieve, decisively, the military objective with minimizing damage to civilians and civilian infrastructure as much as possible. So, that goes without saying. … Hamas can end this by releasing the hostages and unconditionally surrendering. So, they are choosing to put people through this.”
On banning pro-Palestinian groups from Florida colleges: “This is not cancel culture. This group, they themselves said in the aftermath of the Hamas attack that they don’t just stand in solidarity, that they are part of this Hamas movement. And so, yeah, you have a right to go out and demonstrate, but you can’t provide material support to terrorism.”
On red flag laws after the Maine shooting: “I don’t think you would even need a red flag. If somebody has a mental involuntary commitment and adjudication of that nature, that usually would go into the system, and that would be on a traditional background check. I mean, I believe in due process, so I don’t believe in this idea, you know, that government can just take someone’s property and then go through due process later.”
On Trump’s legal problems: “I think that had Alvin Bragg not politicized this back in April, I think probably the primary would be looking different. I mean, I think that that gave the former president more support. I think people felt that he was being treated unfairly, which he was, in that circumstance.”
In other campaign news…
Taking on Biden: Rep. Dean Phillips, D-Minn., launched his presidential campaign on Friday, and he told NBC’s “Meet the Press” host Kristen Welker that he does not believe Biden can beat Trump. Phillips’ decision to run “baffled” his House Democratic colleagues, per NBC’s Scott Wong, Ali Vitali and Jake Traylor.
Taking on Trump: Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley took aim at Trump over the weekend at the Republican Jewish Coalition’s summit, saying, ““America needs a captain who will steady the ship, not capsize it, and Republicans need a candidate who can actually win,” per NBC’s Nnamdi Egwuonwu. Politico also explores Haley’s recent rise in the GOP primary.
Taking on DeSantis: The pro-Trump super PAC MAGA, Inc., launched a new TV ad in Iowa knocking Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis for his past support of statehood for Puerto Rico. The New York Times notes this is a shift in strategy for the group, which had been focused on contrasting Trump and Biden.
Eyes on Asa: Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson’s struggling campaign took another hit, with his campaign manager leaving the team, meaning Hutchinson will handle his campaign’s media inquiries, per NBC’s Jillian Frankel.
Trump trials: Trump’s oldest children will be called to testify this week in the civil fraud trial in New York, and Trump himself is set to testify on Nov. 6. In the federal election interference case, a partial gag order on Trump was reinstated on Sunday.
Ballot issues: Republican Keith Gross, a Republican challenging Florida GOP Sen. Rick Scott, was once removed from the ballot in Georgia amid “allegations that he had lied about his eligibility to run for the [state legislative] seat,” writes NBC News’ Matt Dixon.
Kim’s case: Politico explores Democratic Rep. Andy Kim’s run for Senate in New Jersey, where he is also taking on a powerful political machine.
Santos’ plea: Embattled New York GOP Rep. George Santos pleaded not guilty on Friday to new charges, including identity theft. His trial was also set for Sept. 9 of next year.
He’s running (for the House): Republican Blake Masters, who lost last year’s Senate race in Arizona, announced late last week that he is running for the state’s’ 8th District, a newly open race with GOP Rep. Debbie Lesko retiring.
Progressives draw primary challengers: The New York Times reports that several Democratic members of Congress who clashed with Jewish colleagues or pro-Israel groups have drawn primary challengers in the wake of the war between Israel and Hamas.
New speaker, same team: Speaker Mike Johnson is “wholeheartedly” endorsing the Congressional Leadership Fund, a group traditionally aligned with House Republican leadership, mainly former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, Politico reports.
ICYMI: What ELSE is happening in the world:
President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping are expected to meet next month during a conference in San Francisco, NBC’s Monica Alba, Kelly O’Donnell, Abigail Williams and Zoë Richards report.
Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., said Sunday that a standalone Israel aid package could be considered on the House floor as soon as this week.
Negotiations to free over 200 hostages held captive by Hamas stalled as the group demanded that fuel deliveries be allowed into Gaza.
