Happening this Tuesday: It’s (Special) Election Day in NY-3; polls close at 9:00 pm ET… Senate passes aid to Ukraine and Israel, but its future in the House is uncertain… Trump endorses Michael Whatley to lead RNC, with Lara Trump as co-chair… And House Republicans request transcripts of President Biden’s interview with special counsel Robert Hur.
But FIRST… Democrats and Republicans both have their advantages — and disadvantages — heading into tonight’s special congressional election in New York to replace expelled Rep. George Santos, R-N.Y.
The advantages for Democrats: This is a Biden +8 district; they’ve outspent Republicans over the airwaves, $14 million to $8 million; their party has enjoyed plenty of recent victories in special elections; their candidate, Tom Souzzi, is a former congressman who once represented this district; oh, and there’s that George Santos scandal hovering over the entire race.
The advantages for Republicans: Santos actually won this district by 8 points in 2022, a possible sign of its transformation in the Biden era; Biden’s favorable rating in NY-3 is at just 39%, per a recent Newsday/Siena College poll; and the same poll has the GOP candidate, Mazi Pilip, with an advantage on the immigration issue.
In fact, here’s how Souzzi and Pilip stack up on several different issues, according to that Newsday/Siena College poll:
- Addressing the influx of migrants into the U.S.: Pilip +9
- Protecting our democracy: Souzzi +9
- Making Congress work more effectively: Souzzi +10
- Addressing the issue of abortion: Souzzi +23
- Establishing American policy towards the Israeli-Hamas war: Pilip +3
Overall in that poll, Souzzi was ahead of Pilip by 4 points among likely voters, 48% to 44%, well within the margin of error.
One more key element tonight: the weather.
A powerful winter storm is poised to hit the Northeast today, with New York City expected to get six inches of snow or more — the city’s largest snowstorm in two years.
And in a close race, everything matters, including the weather.
Headline of the day
The number of the day is … 70
That’s how many senators voted early Tuesday morning to pass a $95 billion bill providing aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, including 22 Republicans, per NBC’s Scott Wong, Kate Santaliz and Frank Thorp V.
Twenty-nine senators, including three Democrats, voted against the bill. The vote moved forward after Senate Republicans last week rejected a measure that also included provisions to toughen asylum laws and border security, which many Republicans have demanded be tied to aid to other countries.
The national security funding bill now faces an uncertain future in the House. Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., sharply criticized the measure in a Tuesday statement, per NBC’s Rebecca Kaplan.
“Now, in the absence of having received any single border policy change from the Senate, the House will have to continue to work its own will on these important matters,” Johnson said. “America deserves better than the Senate’s status quo.”
Eyes on November: Trump makes his RNC pick
Former President Donald Trump jumped directly into the drama over the next Republican National Committee chair, backing North Carolina Chairman Michael Whatley for the top spot and his daughter-in-law Lara Trump as the next co-chair, per NBC’s Megan Lebowitz, Allan Smith and Katherine Doyle.
Trump also said he has asked his campaign’s senior advisor, Chris LaCivita, to be the RNC’s chief operating officer (he would also keep his role with the campaign).
But the party’s current chairwoman, Ronna McDaniel, hasn’t actually stepped down yet. RNC spokesman Keith Schipper said Monday night, “Nothing has changed, and there will be no decision or announcement about future plans until after South Carolina.”
Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley’s campaign responded to the news by saying there would be even more turnover at the RNC if she is the party’s nominee.
“Nikki Haley’s plan for the RNC? Blow it all up,” Haley campaign manager Betsy Ankney in a statement. “Everyone at the RNC will be fired, there will be a full and complete audit of the gross misuse of funds, and there will be a formal application process to become RNC chair based on MERIT, not on back scratching.”
In other campaign news …
Taking on Trump: Haley delivered her bluntest assessment yet of former President Donald Trump, calling him “not qualified to be the president of the United States, because I don’t trust him to protect” the military, per NBC’s Sarah Dean and Amanda Terkel. The comments come after Trump evoked Haley’s husband, who is deployed overseas with the South Carolina Army National Guard, on the stump.
Trailing Trump: A new CBS/YouGov poll finds Haley trailing Trump in South Carolina by 35 points.
Ready for it: In an interview just days before the special counsel’s report came out, Vice President Kamala Harris told the Wall Street Journal that amid questions about Biden’s age, “I am ready to serve. There’s no question about that.”
Jill’s response: First Lady Jill Biden issued a rare statement from the campaign responding to special counsel Robert Hur’s report criticizing Biden’s memory because she was “deeply offended and personally motivated to issue a response,” write NBC’s Monica Alba and Peter Alexander.
Tick tock, ya don’t stop: Biden’s presidential campaign joined TikTok, despite previously signaling it would not join the app. And data from our recent NBC News poll shows why.
Trump legal digest: Monday was a busy day for the former president’s myriad of legal proceedings. Trump appealed to the Supreme Court in the hopes of preventing being prosecuted for his actions surrounding the 2020 election; a Georgia judge said it’s possible that Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis gets booted from his case there over misconduct allegations; and hearings on the case related to his handling of classified documents kicked off in Florida.
Diversifying: While House Republicans have panned federal and educational diversity and inclusion programs, they’ve made trying to increase the diversity of their candidate pool a priority in recent years, the Associated Press reports.
Arizona Senate rumblings: The Arizona Republican reports on how Senate Democratic hopeful Rep. Ruben Gallego has hardly mentioned his support for Biden despite endorsing him in the 2020 primary. And on the GOP side, the National Republican Senatorial Committee is endorsing Kari Lake, per Politico. Lake also picked up endorsements from Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul and Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz.
Crypto in Cali: Fairshake, a cryptocurrency super PAC, is launching a TV and digital advertising campaign against Democratic Rep. Katie Porter in California’s Senate race, per the New York Times.
Getting by with a little help: The New York Times explores how pro-Israel groups are lining up to support Missouri Democratic Rep. Cori Bush’s primary challenger, even though debates over Israel aren’t likely to feature prominently in the primary debate.
ICYMI: What ELSE is happening in the world
President Biden met with the king of Jordan at the White House Monday, and they discussed the possible hostage release deal in the Israel-Hamas war.
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin underwent “non-surgical procedures” Monday that put him under general anesthesia, the Defense Department announced.
House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., who has been absent from the House for cancer treatments, is returning this week and is in remission, per Speaker Mike Johnson.
