If it’s THURSDAY… Russia detains American Wall Street Journal reporter on espionage charges… Donald Trump expands his lead in national 2024 GOP race, according to Fox News poll… Sen. John Fetterman, D-Pa., returns to work on the week of April 17, NBC’s Ali Vitali reports… Rep. Elissa Slotkin, D-Mich., slams GOP amid school shootings… And man arrested for secretly recording GOP Senate lunches prompts security changes, NBC’s Capitol Hill team scoops.
But FIRST... This one poll result explains why Donald Trump will be so difficult — though not impossible — to beat in the 2024 race for the Republican presidential nomination.
A whopping 72% of GOP voters say Trump has had a mainly positive impact on the Republican Party, versus 21% who say he’s had a negative impact, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday.
That’s after Trump lost re-election in 2020 and didn’t help his party in the 2022 midterms; it’s after he was impeached twice; it’s after being on the cusp of an indictment in New York; and it’s after Jan. 6 and everything we’ve learned about that day.
And these numbers underscore why Trump as the GOP’s 2024 nominee could meet the same fate as he did in 2020: 91% of Democrats and 56% of independents believe the former president has had a mostly negative impact on the GOP.
Among all voters, 36% believe Trump has a positive impact on the Republican Party, while 58% say it’s been negative.
There’s your great disconnect in American politics: A supermajority of Republicans are in one place on Trump, and almost everyone else is in a different place.
Now saying that someone has a positive/negative impact on a political party isn’t the same thing as saying you’d vote for him. After all, a Republican voter could believe Trump had a positive impact on the GOP but still want someone else as the party’s 2024 nominee.
But also look at Quinnipiac’s national GOP horserace numbers: Trump 47%, DeSantis 33%, Pence 5%, Haley 4%. (A month ago, it was Trump 42%, DeSantis 36%).
And here’s a Fox News national poll released yesterday: Trump 54%, DeSantis 24%, Pence 6%. (Last month in the same poll, it was Trump 43%, DeSantis 28%.)
So Trump’s support has been growing — at a time when the dominant political story has been his possible indictment.
Which isn’t surprising when more than 70% of Republicans believe he’s been a positive force for the party.
Headline of the Day
Data Download: The number of the day is ... 66
That’s the number of senators who voted to repeal the Iraq War authorizations passed by Congress in 1991 and 2002, legislation that presidents have used to justify military operations in the region for decades.
The vote passed despite the opposition of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky. But it’s unclear whether the bill will get a vote in the GOP-led House — House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., was noncommittal when NBC News recently asked if he’d bring the bill up for consideration.
Other numbers to know
75%: The share of Republicans who believe a possible criminal charge filed against former President Donald Trump shouldn’t disqualify him from a presidential bid, per a new Quinnipiac University poll.
68%: The portion of U.S. adults who say that crime is a real threat in most communities, instead of an issue “blown out of proportion by politicians as a way to win voters,” per a new NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll.
54%: The portion of U.S. adults in that same NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll who oppose a bill “that criminalizes providing gender transition-related medical care for minors.”
4,300: The number of Chinese undocumented migrants apprehended at the U.S. southern border in the last five months, as the number of undocumented immigrants from China rises.
6: The number of people indicted for robberies, with some of the six also being charged with the murder of two men who were drugged and killed following visits to gay bars in New York City last year.
More than 80,000: How many opioid overdose deaths there were in 2021. On Wednesday, the Food and Drug Administration approved an over-the-counter opioid-overdose reversal drug.
35,000: The number of people who die each year in the U.S. as a result of drug-resistant infections, as the number of antibiotic-resistant bacteria threatening patients rises.
Eyes on 2024: It’s still the Trump and DeSantis show
Remember about a month ago when it was clear that Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis were emerging as the clear co-frontrunners for the GOP presidential nomination (even though DeSantis isn’t officially in the race yet)?
Well, that’s still the case, according to two new polls released on Wednesday that surveyed Republicans’ views of 15 current and potential candidates.
Fox News finds that Trump has expanded his lead in a crowded field, but the former president and DeSantis remain the only two contenders pulling double-digit support, with Trump at 54% and DeSantis at 24%. That’s also the case in a new Quinnipiac University poll, where 47% of GOP and GOP-leaning voters back Trump and 33% back DeSantis. The next closest contender is former Vice President Mike Pence at 5%.
That helps explain why Trump keeps targeting the Florida governor. On Wednesday he fired off a slew of social media videos attacking DeSantis on issues like ethanol subsidies, Social Security and his standing in public polling. (The videos have become frequent vehicles for Trump to skirt traditional news outlets, per the Associated Press.)
Meanwhile, DeSantis is working to pitch himself as a viable alternative. Politico reports that DeSantis has stepped up his outreach to New York donors, making the case that he is the “no drama” choice who can beat Biden. And the New York Times reports that DeSantis has indicated he plans to target Trump on crime, particularly the criminal justice overhaul Trump signed into law, per three people familiar with his thinking.
In other campaign news…
Not now, but maybe not never?: Michigan Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer told the New York Times that she would not run for president this cycle because “I have made a commitment to the people of Michigan, I’m going to do this job till the end of this term.” But when asked if the presidency could be in the cards for her at some point, she added that “this country is long overdue for a strong female chief executive.”
Country roads: West Virginia Republican Attorney General Patrick Morrisey is teasing an “important announcement” on Tuesday, followed by a statewide tour. Republicans are gearing up to run against Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin, as well as for the open gubernatorial race.
Justice signs bill limiting transgender care: West Virginia Republican Gov. Jim Justice, who is weighing a run for Senate, signed legislation banning gender-affirming care for transgender minors.
Veto override: The GOP majority legislature in Kentucky overrode Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear’s veto of a ban on gender-affirming care for transgender minors.
The Brain Room: NBC News’ Amanda Terkel, Jane C. Timm and Dareh Gregorian report on new internal slides from Fox News’ so-called “Brain Room” that investigated the false claims about the 2020 election.
‘Talent seeks talent’: Texas Republican Rep. Chip Roy spoke to NBC News about why he and other allies of Texas GOP Sen. Ted Cruz are backing Florida Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis’ expected presidential bid.
Ballot battle: The Arizona Democratic Party is expected to file a lawsuit on Thursday aiming to overturn the decision to make No Labels a recognized party that gave the group access to the state’s ballot, per the Washington Post.
Thanks but no thanks: Former Wisconsin state Supreme Court Justice Daniel Kelly, who is running in next week’s election for that same post, told NBC News he isn’t looking for an endorsement from former President Donald Trump and wouldn’t necessarily accept it (despite receiving Trump’s endorsement in his 2020 race).
ICYMI: What ELSE is happening in the world
Senators are out with a new bill that would allow regulators to claw back executive bonuses from failed banks.
Members of both parties are increasingly voicing opposition to banning TikTok, NBC News’ Sahil Kapur reports.
